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Update on House Races in 2014

The following breakdown is by region. In order for the Republican to qualify for losing the seat, the presidential voting trend over six cycles has to favor the Democrat who ran and incorporates changes in both demographics and redistricting. Additionally, their (the Republican) victory in 2012 had to be rather close. For example, a district may favor the Democrat in voting trends, but if the Republican wins their district my a large margin, they would not qualify to lose that district. In the “danger” sections that are denoted with a loser, the trend towards the presidential vote may have been weak against the representative’s party, but so was their (the congressman) margin of victory. However, if their margin of victory was particularly large despite a mediocre or weak vote in the presidential trend, they would not qualify as a loser. In the races to be watched, either a strong presidential vote was offset by a strong individual representative’s vote or they are representatives in districts won by the opposition party in presidential elections OR where a better quality candidate has emerged since 2012 in opposition.

WEST:
Republican seats to be lost
CA-10 Jeff Denham
CA-31 Gary Miller
CO-6 Mike Coffman

Republican seats in danger
CA-25 Howard “Buck” McKeon
NV-3 Joe Heck (loser)
WA-8 Dave Reichert

Republican seats to watch
CA-21 David Valadeo
CA-45 OPEN

Democratic seats to be lost
AZ-2 Ron Barber
UT-4 Jim Matheson

Democratic seats in danger
AZ-1 Anne Kirkpatrick (loser)
AZ-9 Krysten Sinema
CA-26 Julia Brownley (loser)
CA-52 Scott Peters (loser)
OR-5 Kurt Schrader

Democratic seats to watch
CA-7 Ami Bera
NV-4 Steve Horsford
WA-1 Suzann DelBene

Net total in region
REPUBLICANS +1 seat

MIDWEST
Republican seats to be lost
NONE

Republican seats in danger
IL-13 Rodney Davis (loser)
IN-2 Jackie Walorsky (loser)
IA-3 Tom Latham
MI-1 Dan Benischek (loser)
MI-6 Fred Upton
MI-7 Tim Wahlberg
MI-11 Kerry Bentivolio
MN-2 John Kline
MN-3 Erik Paulsen
NE-2 Lee Terry
OH-14 David Joyce

Republican seats to watch
IA-4 Steve King
MI-3 Justin Amash
MN-6 OPEN
OH-6 Bill Johnson
OH-7 Bob Gibbs
OH-16 James Renacci
WI-1 Paul Ryan
WI-7 Sean Duffy
WI-8 Reid Ribble

Democratic seats to be lost
NONE

Democratic seats in danger
IL-10 Brad Schneider (loser)
IL-12 William Enyart

Democratic seats to watch
IL-8 Tammy Duckworth
IL-17 Cheri Bustos
IA-1 OPEN
MN-1 Tim Walz
MN-7 Colin Peterson
MN-8 Rick Nolan

Net total in region: REPUBLICANS LOSE 2 SEATS

Running national count: REPUBLICANS LOSE 1 SEAT

EAST
Republican seats to be lost
NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo
NJ-3 OPEN
NY-11 Mike Grimm

Republican seats in danger
NY-19 Chris Gibson
NY-23 Tom Reed (loser)
NY-27 Chris Collins
PA-8 Mike Fitzpatrick

Republican seats to watch
NJ-5 Scott Garrett
NY-2 Peter King
PA-6 Jim Gerlach
PA-7 Pat Meehan
PA-12 Keith Rothfus
PA-15 Charlie Dent

Democratic seats to be lost
WV-3 Nick Rahall

Democratic seats in danger
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter (loser)
NY-1 Tim Bishop (loser)
NY-18 Sean Maloney (loser)
NY-21 Bill Owens (loser)

Democratic seats to watch
CT-5 Elizabeth Esty
ME-2 OPEN
MA-6 John Tierney
NH-2 Ann Kuster
NY-24 Dan Maffei
PA-13 OPEN

Net total in region- REPUBLICANS GAIN 1 SEAT

Running national count: NO CHANGE

SOUTH
Republican seats to be lost
FL-13 OPEN (Gus Young)

Republican seats in danger
FL-2 Steve Southerland
NC-9 Robert Pittinger
VA-2 Scott Rigell

Republican seats to watch
FL-10 Daniel Webster
FL-15 Dennis Ross
GA-4 OPEN
KY-6 Andy Barr
NC-13 George Holding
SC-5 John Mulvaney
SC-7 Tom Rice
VA-5 Robert Hurt
VA-10 Frank Wolf

Democratic seats to be lost
FL-18 Patrick Murphy
GA-12 John Barrow
NC-7 Mike McIntyre

Democratic seats in danger
TX-23 Pete Gallego (loser)

Democratic seats to watch
FL-26 Joe Garcia

Net total in region: REPUBLICANS GAIN 3 SEATS

Running national count: REPUBLICANS GAIN 3 SEATS

This analysis would tend to support the historical trend that the party in power in the White House loses seats in the House in the ensuing midterm election. Also, most political experts predict that there will not be a major swing in the number of seats one way or the other with Republicans likely to pick up no more than 5 seats maximum. Several pundits put the total no higher than two seats. It should be noted that the potential for more seats is available among the “to watch” or “danger” districts that may become evident as campaigns and opposing candidates become known. Most importantly, the impact of Obamacare and how Democratic candidates run for or against it can also help dictate outcomes.

As Election Day nears and all the primaries are settled, a more detailed state-by-state analysis will look at individual races.

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