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A Post-Labor Day Senate and Gubernatorial Races: Where We Stand

It is the traditional start of the midterm election campaign season which starts traditionally after Labor Day.  Based upon polling and trends in polling as of September 2nd, let’s see where we stand.  First up, the Senate races:

SAFE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS-

  • Jeff Sessions- Alabama
  • Jim Risch- Idaho
  • Pat Roberts- Kansas
  • Susan Collins- Maine
  • Thad Cochran- Mississippi
  • Jim Inhofe- Oklahoma
  • Lindsey Graham- South Carolina
  • Tim Scott- South Carolina
  • Lamar Alexander- Tennessee
  • John Cornyn- Texas
  • Mike Enzi- Wyoming

The following is a WEAK Republican retention:

  • Mitch McConnell- Kentucky

The following are an OPEN Republican seats that are a SAFE retention:

  • Ben Sasse in Nebraska
  • Jim Lankford in Oklahoma

The following is an OPEN Republican seat that is a WEAK retention:

  • David Perdue in Georgia

The following are Democratic incumbents who are SAFE:

  • Chris Coons in Delaware
  • Brian Schatz in Hawaii
  • Dick Durbin in Illinois
  • Ed Markey in Massachusetts
  • Al Franken in Minnesota
  • Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire
  • Corey Booker in New Jersey
  • Tom Udall in New Mexico
  • Jeff Merkley in Oregon
  • Jack Reed in Rhode Island
  • Mark Warner in Virginia

The following are Democratic incumbents who are WEAK retentions:

  • Mark Begich in Alaska
  • Mark Udall in Colorado

The following are Democratic incumbents who are TOSS UPS:

  • Mark Pryor in Arkansas
  • Mary Landrieu in Louisiana
  • Kay Hagan in North Carolina

The following are open Democratic seats that will FLIP to Republican:

  • Steve Daines in Montana
  • Mike Rounds in South Dakota
  • Shelley Moore-Capito in West Virginia

The following is an OPEN Democratic seat that is a WEAK retention:

  • Bruce Braley in Iowa

The following is an OPEN Democratic seat that will remain Democratic:

  • Gary Peters in Michigan

In the gubernatorial races, they stand as of now:

Republican incumbents who will be SAFELY Re-elected:

  • Robert Bentley in Alabama
  • Sean Parnell in Alaska
  • Butch Otter in Idaho
  • Terry Branstad in Iowa
  • Rick Snyder in Michigan
  • Brian Sandoval in Nevada
  • Susana Martinez in New Mexico
  • John Kasich in Ohio
  • Mary Fallin in Oklahoma
  • Nikki Haley in South Carolina
  • Dennis Daugaard in South Dakota
  • Bill Haslam in Tennessee
  • Matt Mead in Wyoming

The following are Republican incumbents who will be a WEAK retention:

  • Nathan Deal in Georgia
  • Scott Walker in Wisconsin

The following are Republican incumbents who will be a TOSS UP:

  • Rick Scott in Florida
  • Sam Brownback in Kansas

The following are Republican incumbents who will LOSE in November:

  • Paul LePage in Maine to Mike Michaud
  • Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania to Tom Wolf

The following are OPEN Republican seats that are SAFE:

  • Pete Ricketts in Nebraska
  • Greg Abbott in Texas

The following is an OPEN Republican seat that is a TOSS UP:

  • Doug Ducey in Arizona vs. Fred Duval (to replace Jan Brewer

The following are incumbent Democrats who are SAFE:

  • Jerry Brown in California
  • John Hicklenhooper in Colorado
  • Mark Dayton in Minnesota
  • Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire
  • Andrew Cuomo in New York
  • John Kitzhaber in Oregon
  • Bill Shumlin in Vermont

The following are Democratic incumbents who will LOSE to Republicans:

  • Dan Malloy in Connecticut (to Tom Foley)
  • Pat Quinn in Illinois (to Bruce Rauner)

The following are OPEN Democratic seats that will remain Democratic:

  • Anthony Brown in Maryland
  • Martha Coakley in Massachusetts
  • TBD in Rhode Island

The following are OPEN Democratic seats that will FLIP to the Republicans:

  • Asa Hutchison in Arkansas (to replace Mike Beebe)
  • Duke Aiona in Hawaii (to replace Neil Abercrombie)

That is it for now and these “ratings” will likely change as November 4th approaches.

 

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