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Obama’s ’5-Rounds-Rapid’ Syria Policy: Doing the right thing, the wrong way, too late…..

Psst... Sir... You're doing it wrong....

Ever since the Syrian Civil War started, I’ve always been an advocate of US intervention…
Mainly because (A) it offered us a chance to hamstring Iran, and (B) because if we didn’t, then Al Queda would step in instead – undoing all the gains we made in the Iraq War (And yes, we did make gains – for all practical purposes we actually WON Iraq, even as we are going to lose Afghanistan)…

Also, I’ve never bought into the ‘new holy war’ rubbish that pits the US against every-single-Muslim-group-in-the-world. I don’t care if the Muslim Brotherhood runs Syria or Egypt, and I don’t care if they hate Israel (because *every* Arab group, including the Egyptian military, hates Israel at some level) – the damage done to Iran is worth it…

Of course, today, because of the Administration’s foot-dragging equivocation, (B) is no longer in the picture… We failed to support the secular Free Syrian Army, and now Al Queda has moved in to take our place as the foreign benefactors of the rebel cause…

It didn’t have to be that way – if we had intervened at the start, the US could have given Syria to the FSA before any significant AQ presence was invovled… The ‘New Syria’ may not have been a beacon of Western Republicanisim, but it would have been (a) hostile to Iran due to sectarian alignment, and (b) hostile to Al Queda due to memories of what Al Queda did in Anbar, Iraq.

But Obama drug his feet, made a bad-bet that the world’s last Baathist dictator wouldn’t do what the *other* Baathist jerk-A did (gas his own people), and said the words ‘Red Line’ naively thinking that line would not be crossed… AQ took over the rebellion, Assad called in help from Iran, and now someone pulled the pin on some CW – the line *has* been crossed…

So what does Obama do?

Does he prepare a response that would eliminate the Assad regime, secure Syria’s chemical weapons to prevent Al Queda from capturing them, and implement a plan to stabilize Syria & remove it from Iran’s orbit?

No…

Does he at least keep the war-plans off the front-page, until it’s too late for the enemy to prepare?

Nope, doesn’t do that either…

What he does, is the international equivalent of  ‘Jenkins… Chap with the wings… 5 rounds rapid…’ (ref: a scene from a sci-fi show… ‘Chap with the wings’ refers to a rock-monster, which is of course immune to bullets. Not surprisingly, shooting it 5 times does absolutely jack)…

To wit, he goes on the news & promises that he’s not trying to remove Assad from power, just to ‘punish him’, that the weapons used will be cruise-missiles, and that US involvement will be brief…

No concrete military goal, no chance of actually doing any damage (cruise missiles are perhaps our least effective weapon, because while they do generally hit the coordinates they are aimed at there is no way to be sure that there will be anything worth hitting *at* said coordinates when the abysmally-slow missile actually arrives)… No actual US involvement…

Just ‘use Syria for gunnery practice, sail home, say we did something’…

End result?

If Assad stays in power, he gets to claim ‘victory’ over the US, like Saddam did after 91… He becomes the next Saddam – defying the US and show-boating around with the likes of Hugo Chavez, building the next ‘axis of evil’…

If Assad loses power, the ‘fleeting’ US involvement offers us absolutely no say in what happens next… Leading to the likely scenario of an Al Queda-led regime gaining access to a gigantic WMD stockpile (maybe TWO, if Saddam’s stuff actually did go to Syria)…

At this point, the *only* way to resolve Syria to a pro-US conclusion, is a very long, very bloody war with Al Queda & Hezbollah on the ground – a near-exact repeat of the Iraq campaign… Which of course, our President does not have the guts to execute… And our civillian population does not have the guts to support…

So we are going to have the Navy put on a fireworks show for CNN, pat ourselves on the back, and wait for the blowback that comes when the US appears weak & unwilling to back up our bluster with effective action….
Because when you respond to defiance with weakness, your enemies get emboldened… Last time we did this (Sudan/Afghanistan under Clinton), they crashed planes into buildings a few years later, thinking it would cause us to withdraw from the Middle East… This time they (AQ or Hezbollah) may well have CW munitions when it’s all said and done… Gee, thanks Obama…

This is what happens when you ignore problems rather then deal with them forcefully…

 

 

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