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The Ukranian Gambit: Some history, and what to do…

To say the Ukranians have an ‘interesting’ history is a bit of an understatement… They’ve always been connected to (And often trying to get away from) Russia…

In the old-days of the Tsars, part of what is now Ukraine was home to the Cossacks – Imperial Russia’s counterpart to the French Foreign Legion (with a little bit of ‘Praetorian Guard’ mixed in – they had a tendency to rebel against the Tsars every so often) – up until the Bolsheviks took over… The Cossacks lead the anti-Bolshevik forces in the post-Tsarist civil war, and as one would expect, the Communists didn’t take very nicely to that…

They’ve been occupied by Russia many times, and got a whole bunch of ‘extra’ Russians in the eastern part of the country for their troubles…

Now, Russia is back… And Ukraine is screwed..

<b>Meanwhile, back in the USA</b>, Ukraine’s situation represents a bigger problem.

It’s the ultimate expression of the impotence of Obama’s administration.

You see, we can’t go to war with Russia over Ukraine – or anywhere else in Eastern Europe… For the same reason it never happened during the Cold War – something about enough nukes to turn both sides extra-crispy…

This means that the only time to stop Putin from doing something abjectly stupid (like, um, invading Ukraine) is before he does it…

The ‘good old game’ with the Russians is like playing Chess with only Kings & Pawns… The 2 kings can’t take each other, and the rest of the play centers around that… Once Putin has ‘moved’ we can’t dislodge him. But once we’ve moved he can’t dislodge us either…

The only way to deter Putin is to maintain an image of the US as a strong, immovable nation – a diplomatic & military adversary not to be messed with… ‘No better friend, no worse enemy’, and such…

This means not letting him hoodwink us in the Middle East… It means not bowing to his bluster about missile defense in Eastern Europe… It means admitting threatened Eastern European republics to NATO before the first Russian sets foot on their soil…

Remember: He can’t fight us either, for the same reason we can’t fight him… MAD works both ways… A NATO-member Ukraine is gone off the table for Putin the same way a Russian-occupied Ukraine is off the table for us…

That, right there, is the only positive way to have avoided this – Don’t bow to the Russians over other issues, and admit Ukraine to NATO, back before the invasion…

But we’re passed that now, because we’ve got a sniveling coward for a President. The writing was on the wall for Eastern Europe as soon as the ‘Reset Button’ changed hands… Then there was the withdrawal of missile defense, and ‘flexibility’, and Syria… Dealing with Putin is like dealing with the Mafia – any expression of weakness will be exploited to the max – and Obama has shown nothing BUT weakness when dealing with Russia… From his perspective, Obama’s government is an easy mark, to be extorted, wrung dry & cast aside once there’s nothing left to take…

The only way to salvage the situation, oddly enough, is a rehash of the ‘NATO option’ – inform Putin that NATO will be admitting the Ukraine *unless* he withdraws every last troop and respects the 94 agreement (in which case, we promise to leave Ukraine neutral)… It’s the *only* threat we have that can make a dent…

But you need a President who’s willing to say ‘Tear down this wall’, instead of compliment the Germans on the graffiti… And that, unfortunately, we do not have…

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