The polls have understated GOP turnout.
The basics: Field Poll is highly respected in California, and they released a poll today. It shows that the enthusiasm gap lives in California, just like everywhere else.
Democrats have a 44-31 registration advantage in California. However, look at Field’s predicted turnout. They say that 68% of Republicans, 55% of Democrats, and 38% of independents will vote.
Applying those percentages, the Democrats should turn out 24.2% of registered voters, while the Republicans should turn out 21% of registered voters. Independents who go to the polls will constitute 9.5% of registered voters. That means out of all who actually vote, the breakdown will be approximately 44 Dem/38 Rep/18 Ind.
The recent Survey USA poll that showed Carly down 46-38 and Meg down 48-37 was based on a 42/32/23 sample.
If Field is right, they significantly oversampled Democrats in that poll, and the margin is more like 3 or 4 percentage points for Fiorina, and five or six for Whitman.
The PPP poll with Boxer up by 4 was better, but also under-sampled Republicans slightly.
The Field Poll also found that 40% of likely voters had some identification with the Tea Party. Not too many of those people will be voting for Boxer.
Don’t sleep on this race, and if you are in California, vote and encourage others to do so. Don’t believe the polls.