Ok, boys & girls, I know these last 72 hours have been gutwrenching. The future of the Republic may hang in the balance. The Fabian Dems are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at this unconstitutional takeover of 1/6th of the American economy and their lapdogs in the media are dutifully lapping up the vomit they are spewing and spitting it right back out at us.
The spin has come fast and furious and all those CongressCritters who voted "yes" last time, and then conveniently decided that they were "undecided" have come rushing to the fore with the media trumpeting their every 'conversion' to create an air of inevitability. This has left those of us who have been fighting this with every fiber of our being looking in the liquor cabinet for our favorite adult beverage and crawling out to the ledge of our abode in anticipation of the dismantling of that for which our forefathers fought and died.
Folks, it's time to come in off the ledge because SanFranNan, Dingy Harry & His Excellency need the space that you're occupying. About an hour ago, I decided to take a step back from the dizzying array of numbers coming out and adopt the KISS method and here, my fellow warriors, is where we are at.
For those of you who don't wish to trudge through the feature presentation, I'll give you a sneak peak at the ending - The Marxist triumvarate need to draw an inside straight to actually pull this off.
No, I haven't been nipping at the brandy (ok, to be honest, I did go downstairs and find my best friend "Jack"). But here's the deal. Screw all these names coming out; here's the bottom line. HCR passed the first time on a vote of 220 - 215. Since then, 4 members have departed the House (some voluntarily, others forced out by scandal; one at room temperature (so how's the weather down there, Jack?)) They comprised 3 yes votes and 1 no.
So, if everyone voted exactly the same as they did the first time, the vote would be 217 - 214. Cao, the lone Republican to vote yes last time (with the Speaker's permission) is a solid no this time. Score: 216 - 215. The Botox Queen ain't got any wriggle room right out of the gate.
No matter what kind of bilge the Dems and the media (but I repeat myself) have been spewing, the only thing that matters are the numbers of votes that have changed since the November vote. And here, sports fans, is where we're at on this. There have been 7 "no's" that have flipped to "yes" (the traitors are: Boccieri-OH, Boyd-FL, Gordon-TN, Kosmos-FL, Kucinich-OH, Markey-CO, and Murphy-NY). Score at the end of the first quarter? 223 - 208.
However, there have been ten yes-to-no switches (the heroes are, with the Stupak group in italics: Arcuri-NY, Berry-AR, Costello-IL, Donnelly-IN, Driehaus-IN, Lipinski-IL, Lynch-MS, Rahall-WV, Stupak-MI, Space-OH). That makes the half-time score 213-218, the Good Guys.
There are 4 no-to-yes possibilities left: Baird-WA (ret.), Tanner-TN (ret.), Davis-TN, Nye-VA (Update - Nye is a No; that means Nan's gotta get all 3 of 'em and folks from TN are saying Davis is solid. In addition, Sanchez -CA is AWOL in Florida somewhere, voted against the Slaughter Solution earlier this week and has told folks she's a 'no' and she hasn't been on anybody's radar screen). Simple math tells you that if all 10 yes-to-no's hold, the Botox Queen has to get 3 of these 4 to win the game. If you assume that she gets both Baird & Tanner because they're retiring and they don't need a 'get of jail free' card, that means she has to get either Davis or Nye (I think that's why Davis has been in seclusion the last few days. The pressure has been intense and if he announces as a 'no' he can't go back and the gig is probably over)
If SFN can't get one of those two, she has to flip one of the Stupak 7 who have declared opposition. But it gets even harder for her. There are still (per FDL) 9 undecideds. Among those 9 are 3 Stupak members: Dahlkamper (R +3), Mollohan (R+9) and Kaptur (D+10). She can't lose any of those 3 or she has to pry either a firm 'no' to a yes (and anybody flipping back to yes right now would be absolute toast in November) or pry off another Stupak member. So if you want to know why she lowered herself to negotiate with Stupak again last night at the risk of infuriating the pro-abortion crowd...now you know.
She. Can't. Win. This. Without. The. Pro-Life. Democrats (is that the ultimate in irony or what)
I'll make this even easier on you. FireDogLake is showing: "Firm Yes" - 205; "Firm No" - 207; "Leaning No" - 10; "Undecided" - 9. Simple math tells you Nan's got to get all 9 undecideds (which include 3 Stupak members) and 2 of the 10 "Leaning No's".
Now, I haven't spent enough time with my buddy Jack to think that this ain't doable for the utterly corrupt, lying, conniving, bribing, Constitution-hating gang of Marxists 'cause the pressure on some folks for the next 18 hours will be beyond anything we can imagine. This ain't over till it's over.
But just out of courtesy for the less fortunate, you may want to step back off the ledge. I think there just may be some people who need the space more than you.