Ed is a retired Army Special Forces Officer. He served from 1998 to 2008 with the 25th ID, 10th Special Forces Group, and SOCCENT. He served multiple rotations in Iraq in SOF organizations. He retired in 2008 to found Lukos, LLC, a defense contractor specializing in professional services support to SOCOM and CENTCOM.


    Cognitive Dissonance and Union Workers

    I was driving behind a pickup truck today and admiring the bumper stickers in his back window.  He had 2 Obama-Biden stickers, which is fairly unusual for this suburban area east of Tampa, Florida. He also had two pro-labor union bumper stickers, which is something you almost never see here.  One said “Unions: the folks who brought you weekends.” Oh, and he was driving a | Read More »

    Ball control and the debate

    Let’s say you are head coach of an NFL team playing in the Super Bowl.  Your team is up by 1 point with 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.  You have the best running game in the league, and your opponent has the worst run defense in the league.  You have a marginal passing game, with potential for big plays but a quarterback | Read More »

    Impact of the 47% comments

    For anyone wondering, Romney’s 47% comments definitely hurt him.  But it’s helpful to look at the tracking poll numbers to understand HOW it hurt him.  The graph below shows the Rasmussen and Gallup Tracking Poll midpoints.  As I explained in a previous post, comparing midpoints is a better way to observe the impact of specific events.  The purple vertical line marks 17 September, the day | Read More »

    Don’t freak out over the Gallup spike (with graphs)

    In a previous post, I explained why you can’t compare the daily tracking releases from Gallup and Rasmussen.  To recap: Gallup uses a 7 day sample while Rasmussen uses a 3 day sample, so the daily results are for two different time periods.  As a result, Gallup lags behind Rasmussen by 2 days when reacting to events.  However, comparing the two polls by their midpoints | Read More »

    Romney won the conventions

    Well, not quite.  But he sure didn’t lose them.  Not that you could tell that from the triumphant press reporting. In defense to them, it’s pretty hard to tell.  Comparing different polls is pointless because the models used are different.  Daily tracking polls provide the only consistent polling models across the entire time period of the convention, but they often seem to contradict each other. | Read More »

    Tracking Polls and the Dead Cat Bounce

    I’ve been a little discouraged for the last few days by the polling news.  The conventional wisdom is that Obama got a bounce and Romney did not.  But is that really true? The best way to gauge the impact of short term events are daily tracking polls.  The tracking pollster uses the same demographic assumptions and polling methodology for each daily poll.  This insulates the | Read More »

    12 Million – 16 Trillion – $4.50

    12 Million 16 Trillion $4.50

    Let America Be America Again

    Have you seen Scott Brown’s new ad?  It’s good.  Real good. Romney needs to hire whoever made this ad.  Or maybe just buy rights to use the first 2 minutes.

    Delegate Math

    The primaries have now entered the math phase. Romney is chasing the magic number of 1144, competing hard in every state to maximize his delegates. Gingrich now acknowledges that it is almost mathematically impossible for him to reach 1144, and admits his strategy has switched to denying Romney the magic number.  Santorum, at least publicly, says his goal is still to win the delegate race, | Read More »

    Enough whining about the Media!

    I mean really, enough is enough.  Every single inconvenient fact about anyone’s favorite GOP candidate is chalked up to the the evil MSM.  If I had a nickel for every time someone on this forum tried to shut down a line of argument b claiming it was an MSM plot, I would be rich by now.  Do you not realize what a bunch of crybabies | Read More »