Predictions For Upcoming Primaries/Caucuses
Florida (January 31)-Romney will win Florida in a close race. Gingrich will do well in the rural areas and the panhandle/areas close to his home state of Georgia, but, Romney will make up the difference in southern Florida and the coasts because that is where all of the high-income earners live. The senior vote will also go for Romney. Paul will do well in the college areas, and Santorum will take votes away from Gingrich in the rural areas.
Maine (February 4-11)-Romney wins in a decisive victory since New England is his home base and he dominated in New Hampshire. Paul also does well here because a lot of this area is libertarian-leaning and votes pretty moderate.
Nevada (February 4)-Romney wins in a pretty close race here. Nevada is Mormon country, and will vote for Romney. Gingrich and Santorum win some of the more rural areas, and Paul wins the college areas.
Minnesota (February 7)-This is more moderate country, and Romney will also win here. Gingrich and Santorum win the more rural areas, and Paul wins some precincts around Minneapolis and St. Paul.
Colorado (February 7)-Romney wins a close race against Gingrich and Paul. Romney does well here because it’s Mormon country and near Utah. Paul wins many precincts around libertarian Denver and the college campuses (i.e. Colorado, Colorado State). Gingrich and Santorum win the more rural areas.
Missouri (February 7)-Gingrich wins Missouri pretty decisively. Gingrich does well around most of the state, while Paul wins around the college campuses, and Romney’s voters are really scattered across the state.
This shows that Romney will re-gain momentum going into Arizona, Michigan, and Super Tuesday. Santorum will probably drop out by the Arizona primary unless he re-gains momentum. It’s pretty obvious that no matter what, Paul will remain in the race because he just wants to promote his ideas and stay in the public’s eye. It will be 2008 all over again for him.
Please comment on any mistakes or disagreements.