PPP’s new Iowa poll illustrates everything that is wrong with their polling
PPP just came out (7:30pm EST) with their new poll of Iowa. Obama leads Romney 49%-48%.
“Obama’s up 64/35 with those who’ve already voted in Iowa, Romney up 54/42 with those yet to cast their ballots”
At least they are honest about publishing their internals (pdf). This poll’s sample consists of Democrats 41% Republicans 34% Independents 25%. So I decided to compare this poll sample to the ultimate Democratic year’s (2008) Exit Poll result when Barak Obama beat McCain 54% to 45%. Here is the Exit Poll’s composition: Democrats 34% Republicans 33% Independents 33%.
In the most Democratic of years, Iowa had a Dem +1 vote for president. At the time when the Republican intensity and interest is a whole lot higher than it was 2008, PPP releases a Dem +7 poll and tries to pass it off as a legitimate representation of the Iowa electorate’s intentions. Even if we went to the 2008 party composition, Mitt Romney would be winning significantly by this poll’s standard.
This is what is wrong and this is what we are up against. You decide.