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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Where I Stand: Perry, Gingrich, and None of the Above

I will support the Republican nominee for President.

But until we have that nominee, I will not support Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

Had Rick Santorum been up for election in 2010 instead of suffering the largest margin of defeat of any candidate in 2006, I have no doubt he would be one of the Republicans primaried by the tea party. He routinely voted for tax increases to fund healthcare, supported expansions of the welfare state, supported the creation of new entitlements, opposed free trade, filibustered the National Right to Work Act, opposed repeal or even waiver of the Davis-Bacon Act, supported the Bridge to Nowhere even at the expense of rebuilding the Gulf Coast post Katrina, and helped pass all those travesties of the Bush Administration conservatives routinely lament including No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D as well as being perfectly fine with Harriet Miers.

Rick Santorum is a big government conservative and the only way to conclude otherwise is to be intellectually and ideologically disingenuous.

Mitt Romney too should be opposed by conservatives. He is not one. He is a political opportunist. He has held every side of every issue known to man except on the individual mandate about which his faith is unshakable.

So I am left to support Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, either of whom I would willingly support. In the alternative, another candidate could still come forward now, though time is of the essence, and vie for a sweep of the late states to secure the nomination out right or at least force an open and brokered convention. Yes, there is still time for a Perry rebound, a Gingrich surge, and even for a new candidate to get in.

Rick Perry, who is the most successful governor in the United States, unfortunately, does not seem capable of running a Presidential campaign. Perhaps word will come tomorrow that he has restructured and reshuffled his campaign. But without a real reboot of his campaign, I cannot recommend investing in or supporting his campaign. You’ll be wasting your money. There was a report than some staff had been let go, but that was bad reporting and not the staff that really needs letting go anyway.

The most I’ve seen so far is the Washington consultants pushing out the media buying firm, in order to get a local ad buying firm in South Carolina to handle all the South Carolina ad buying work, which is a smart move, but which cannot be the only move or considered even a major move.

I really hope Governor Perry understands just how much he needs to do a reboot and just how necessary it is to change the media narrative into the story of making a comeback.

That leaves Newt Gingrich, though I cannot endorse either Perry or Gingrich. Not just because I would prefer to not endorse and instead review the candidates as I see them without carrying their water, but also because like with Perry, I am not sure Gingrich’s campaign operation is stable — though it is more stable than Perry’s. It seems to be getting that way, if only on strength of personality, but not yet.

Then there is the wildcard option. There is still time and there is, even at minimum, a path to a brokered convention to get a new candidate. I hope that Rick Perry can rapidly rebuild and show clear momentum in South Carolina. I hope Newt Gingrich can trounce both Romney and Santorum. But in the absence of performance by them, I hope they will not drag down the small government conservatives. If they can’t show gains, time is short, but available, for a Bobby Jindal or someone else to get in.

Below is a list of the states, their filing deadlines, and the delegates at stake. As you can see, there is still the ability to enter the race and, if the candidate sweeps the states, win outright or, if the candidate cannot sweep the states, force a brokered convention to get a new, more viable conservative candidate.

I will gladly support Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich. But there is time for an alternative. We do not have to settle even for the current crop. If Perry cannot reboot and Gingrich cannot convince us he won’t implode, I endorse an open, brokered convention.

State

Delegates

Portion

Date

Filing

Complete

Iowa caucus

28

1.20%

Jan 3, 2012

-

1.20%

NH Primary

12

0.50%

Jan 10, 2012

past

1.80%

SC Primary

25

1.10%

Jan 21, 2012

past

2.90%

FL Primary

50

2.20%

Jan 31, 2012

past

5.10%

NV Caucus

28

1.20%

Feb 4, 2012

-

6.30%

ME Caucus

24

1.10%

2/4-11/12

-

7.40%

CO Caucus

36

1.60%

Feb 7, 2012

-

9.00%

MN Caucus

40

1.80%

Feb 7, 2012

-

10.70%

AZ Primary

29

1.30%

Feb 28, 2012

Jan 9, 2012

12.00%

MI Primary

30

1.30%

Feb 28, 2012

past

13.30%

WA Caucus

43

1.90%

Mar 3, 2012

-

15.20%

Pre-Super Tuesday

345

15.20%

State

Delegates

Portion

Date

Filing

Complete

AK Caucus

27

1.20%

Mar 6, 2012

-

16.40%

GA Primary

76

3.40%

Mar 6, 2012

past

19.80%

ID Caucus

32

1.40%

Mar 6, 2012

-

21.20%

MA Primary

41

1.80%

Mar 6, 2012

past

23.00%

ND Caucus

28

1.20%

Mar 6, 2012

-

24.20%

OK Primary

43

1.90%

Mar 6, 2012

past

26.10%

TN Primary

58

2.60%

Mar 6, 2012

past

28.70%

TX Primary

155

6.80%

Mar 6, 2012

past

35.60%

VE Primary

17

0.80%

Mar 6, 2012

Jan 9, 2012

36.30%

VA Primary

49

2.20%

Mar 6, 2012

past

38.50%

Vir Islands Caucus

9

0.40%

Mar 6, 2012

-

38.90%

WY Caucus

29

1.30%

Mar 6, 2012

-

40.20%

Super Tuesday

564

24.90%

State

Delegates

Portion

Date

Filing

Complete

KS Caucus

40

1.80%

Mar 10, 2012

-

41.90%

AL Primary

50

2.20%

Mar 13, 2012

Jan 13, 2012

44.10%

Haw Caucus

20

0.90%

Mar 13, 2012

-

45.00%

MS Primary

38

1.70%

Mar 13, 2012

Jan 14, 2012

46.70%

Am Samoa Caucus

9

0.40%

Mar 13, 2012

-

47.10%

Missouri Caucus

52

2.30%

Mar 17, 2012

-

49.40%

Puerto Rico Caucus

23

1.00%

Mar 18, 2012

-

50.40%

IL Primary

69

3.00%

Mar 20, 2012

past

53.40%

LA Primary

45

2.00%

Mar 24, 2012

past

55.40%

DC Primary

19

0.80%

Apr 3, 2012

past

56.30%

MD Primary

37

1.60%

Apr 3, 2012

Jan 11, 2012

57.90%

WI Primary

42

1.90%

Apr 3, 2012

Jan 11, 2012

59.80%

Conn Primary

28

1.20%

Apr 24, 2012

Mar 2, 2012

61.00%

DE Primary

17

0.80%

Apr 24, 2012

Feb 24, 2012

61.70%

NY Primary

95

4.20%

Apr 24, 2012

Feb 9, 2012

65.90%

PA Primary

72

3.20%

Apr 24, 2012

Feb 14, 2012

69.10%

RI Primary

19

0.80%

Apr 24, 2012

Jan 21, 2012

70.00%

IN Primary

46

2.00%

May 8, 2012

Feb 10, 2012

72.00%

NC Primary

55

2.40%

May 8, 2012

Feb 29, 2012

74.40%

WV Primary

31

1.40%

May 8, 2012

Jan 28, 2012

75.80%

NE Primary

34

1.50%

May 15, 2012

Mar 7, 2012

77.30%

OR Primary

28

1.20%

May 15, 2012

Mar 6, 2012

78.50%

Ark Primary

36

1.60%

May 22, 2012

Mar 1, 2012

80.10%

KY Primary

45

2.00%

May 22, 2012

Jan 31, 2012

82.10%

CA Primary

172

7.60%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 23, 2012

89.70%

MT Primary

26

1.10%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 12, 2012

90.90%

NJ Primary

50

2.20%

Jun 5, 2012

Apr 2, 2012

93.10%

NM Primary

23

1.00%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 16, 2012

94.10%

SD Primary

28

1.20%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 27, 2012

95.30%

OH Primary

66

2.90%

Jun 12, 2012

Mar 14, 2012

98.20%

UT Primary

40

1.80%

Jun 26, 2012

Mar 15, 2012

100.00%

Post-Super Tuesday

1355

59.80%

Total Delegates

2264

100.00%

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