Originally published at The Minority Report
[This is my reply to a former newspaper editor of mine from my years in Atlanta 2001-2006, who asked if I still thought the republican would win in a landslide.]
Dear Madam Editor
Hey gal! Good to hear from you.
Well, a landslide, whether electoral or popular, by either of our definitions, looks unlikely (by either) given that the GOP didn't pick an unapologetic, unabashed conservative, but I still expect history to repeat itself until it doesn't, and that would mean that a USA that has never elected a far left liberal, would continue not to do so.
Having been intimately involved in every presidential campaign since 1980 either as a democrat campaign activist; campaign manager; county chair; or repub campaign worker (incl this year for a black repub conservative candidate in NC), I have lived thru many October 15ths, most all of which had the GOP candidate behind a liberal that the GOP went on to beat. Carter and Clinton avoided the fate by not running to the left and/or thanks to Perot. I would concede that there are negatives this time 'round that were not present in past GOP victory years, esp the fact of the history of winning a third term coupled with bad econ times. Rather a potent obstacle especially when the GOP picked a maverick moderate.
The GOP wins when it runs to the right as unabashed, unapologetic conservatives and picks off conservative dems, not when it tries to appeal to moderate dems and indies. (See losses by Ford, Carter II, Bush II and Dole but also see Bush 41's victory in 88).
Add to this, the near anemic campaign of McCain, which is part and parcel of being a moderate. God spews out the lukewarm, and so does the GOP and America. (But they spew out leftists quicker. See BHO)
Palin was the best move because she gave voice to the Reaganites that are still the majority. Gallup show that most Americans are very or somewhat conservative (62%). Add to this, the specter of ACORN and other vote fraud via Motor-Voter (see 200,000 in Ohio alone) and I have exhausted my reasons that my 2006 prediction that a generic repub would win in a landslide in 2008 against a Dem Party that had thrown off Bill Clinton DLCism esp with a Hillary that would energize the base of the GOP to register every Baptist Bubba moving! I still think that Obama is unelectable and that the combination of a base energized positively by Palin and negatively by the spectre of socialist government writ large by Obama will prove fatal to the Democrats.
Obama is farther to the left than Hillary, especially the Hillary that "grew" in the campaign. I think Rev Wright and the din of the 20-year pew-parked in a Hate Whitey America Church butt did permanent damage and set a ceiling on his vote percentage. Add to that his statement that Pennsylvania voters were for Hillary because they were bitter clingers to "antipathy to people not like them" (see also the less relevant God and Guns). Hint: The GOP is the Stupid Party. They liked the sound of the God and Guns alliteration, largely ignoring the more explosive charge that Obama had just called most whites bigots, which would dovetail nicely with his grandmother's typical white person-ness and quotes from his books. (Love his books btw.) Great for a guy that has accomplished nothing as a lawyer or community organizer (unless ACORN delivers a victory, but then his accomplishment would be vile)
But, I have been spending lots of time trying to stop the gloom and doom GOP bloggers and others from despairing and giving up, due to poll obsessions that are unjustified by history and misplaced allegiance to the MSM's "Debate moment theory of Presidential history."
People are not so fickle. Reagan won by ten points and I knew he would win before either of his 80 or 84 debate moments. And, as I alluded to before, there is a rich history of polls being against the GOP until 72 hours or less before the vote, so that pollsters can salvage their credibility.
I don't obsess over polls, etc. I work for victory until Election Day, and I don't mind eating crow once every 45 years! I have never been wrong on a presidential election. I may be wrong this year, but if I turn out to be, I will focus on it for one day, not weeks leading up to the one day we vote (I know we have early voting, but you know what I mean), and thanks to you, I have now written Pre-Mortem, the post-mortem that would be expected of me!
Obama should have had his hide peeled long before now (Which may actually be peeled and/or in the process of same as we speak) given that his character witnesses have to hide in basements praying for him; hide behind attempted restraining orders denying access to Annenberg papers; or the Fifth Amendment. His congregation gives standing ovations to vile racist and anti-American slander, BUT he is COOL.
He has a good temperament while McCain does not. But he also exudes a certain arrogance and sexism (I know, DeVine pot and kettle, but Palin is curing me!) and the PUMA Hillaryites are a big danger to him. His internal pollster was heard saying that Obama thinks he is only tied right now and that they can't gauge the Palin base.
And, the final point. The fact is that a large majority of whites WANT to vote for a Black man, all things being equal. Many are saddled with the ridiculous "white guilt" that Shelby Steele writes of, but most are not. Most just would like to show bigger evidence of a fact that has been true for 25 years: only a small number of whites are racist and this country is the least racist on the face of the Earth. The problem for Obama is that he sat in that pew for 20 years and was mentored by a racist that honored the number one racist in America: Calypso Louis Farrakhan!
The problem for McCain is that he is too timid of being called racist by the media, when going after Obama on Wright is not racist at all. Its about what Wright says and what Obama abided. So, many democrats may see less difference if McCain doesn't have the guts to take it on.
This goes to my main theme: Conservative dems vote GOP when they see a spine. Otherwise they revert to what's natural for them. Its a bad nature in my book. After all, I converted way too late in my opinion. But, having said all that, I remain optimistic.
But it is possible, I guess that this smooth operator can avoid landslide defeat due to the above factors.
Great to hear from you gal!
Very truly yours.
Mike DeVine"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson