Why Trump will never run. Three little words. ( OPM – Other people’s money)
In the last week, Trump has been on a mini-media tour. He’s risen to the top in GOP polls, he’s spoken at a Tea party rally, and he’s implied that if the GOP base isn’t smart enough to nominate him; then, by golly, he’ll run as an independent. And if he does, it will all but guarantee that Obama will be re-elected, and guess what..if that happens, it’ll be OUR fault, not his.
I’ve expressed my opinion of “the Donald” often. He is, in no particular order, a joke, clown, narcissist, egomaniac, buffoon. self-promoter, incompetent. ( I mean, if you can’t make money running a casino, fer pete’s sake?) And he’d never survive the vetting. You probably get my drift.
Regardless, in all the discussion to date of Trump, pros and cons,no one has yet focused on the key reason why Trump will never seriously run for the GOP nomination, let alone launch an independent bid for the WH.
Any review of Trump’s business history since he first left his father’s nest in Queens, NY shows that early on he embraced, then perfected, the classic business strategy of not risking his own money…always using what is referred to as OPM..Other People’s Money. If the deal goes well, you take all the credit, and a big chunk of the profits. If the deal falls apart, you loose nothing, you bluster and blame your partners for their failures and shortcomings. It’s a classic win-win for the Donald.
Trump’s credit history has always been spotty. In his first major venture in Manhattan, ( and ironically, the first, and possibly only time he put his own money into the game) he was on the hook to the banks for several hundred million. The real estate market had softened, the project was already way over budget, and needed still more funds, and the banks were an eyelash away from pulling the plug on Trump. The only reason they didn’t do so was that they would have been forced to write the loan down, and take the hit tot heir balance sheets. Instead, they chose to give him some more funds, but did so with significantly tighter controls, and hoped that the market would turn around, and bail them out. It did.
It was a reprise of the old adage: “If you owe the banks a little bit, they control you. If you owe the banks a lot, you control them.” Or, if you prefer, a precursor of “too big to fail.”
He then built his brand..consisting mostly of his NAME, his supposed magic, his expertise, and went around the world looking for people eager to put up their money, in order to sit at the great man’s knee and learn the supposed “secrets” of success. Hey, there’s a “you-know-what” born every minute.
Make no mistake. I do not fault him for any of this. He’s driven, focused, and very successful. More power to him.
But now he enters the political realm. To date, he’s had a free ride, garnering massive publicity in the MSM. And yes, I do admit to enjoy watching how he plays them, and confronts them aggressively. He knows what they are, he knows they’re against him, and he fights back. And this is what resonates with some in the GOP base. They want to see some toughness, some spine, some cojones; not platitudes, in our candidates.
Soon however, Trump will have to start writing some significant checks to build an organization in the key primary states. We’re talking tens of millions. Trump has a lavish lifestyle, spends ostentatiously, and unashamedly ( and good for him) but it’s all about “the Donald.” The jets, the palatial residences, the country clubs, the jewels…these are the trinkets, the baubles, he can see, touch, feel, exult over. But the nuts and bolts of a political organization, well..let’s just say they ain’t sexy. But they’re expensive. And we haven’t even begun to discuss the pricetag for the legion of lawyers, political consultants, and media advisors that any modern campaign requires. He won’t enjoy writing those checks.
He would probably have to seed his initial quest for the GOP nomination with at least $50 million, before he could even begin to fundraise. And the Tea Party nation, whom Trump is embracing… well, let’s not forget that these people became energized because of the fiscal and financial waste in DC. They may like and cheer at what Trump’s saying on the tube, but they’re not going to write a check for $25, or $100, unless and until they see that Trump’s firrst putting his own money where his mouth is. And today, all that info is immediately available on line.
And as for an independent run, you can forget about that. Perot, for all his “quirks” put his own money into the race. It today’s dollars, Ross went into his own pocket for several hundred million. When there was talk last year about Bloomberg running, it was said that he could spend a few billion and self-finance. Does anyone in his right mind think that Trump would toss away, at the bare, BARE minimum, $500 million or so of his own funds on a quixotic independent run for the WH? Nah……
Possibly Trump labors under a misconception about the IRC. If one is NOT employed, then legitimate job hunting expenses are deductible. If one IS employed, and wants to take courses and/or do other things needed to help one get ahead and succeed further in that same career path, then those expenses ARE deductible. If one is employeed, but wants to CHANGE careers, then the expenses to do so are NOT deductible. Ya think he might have missed this?