Boehner’s REAL problem: If there is in fact a deal, will the GOP presidential candidates support it? ( I don’t think so..which is why there won’t be a deal)
I have no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow in the negotiations over the debt ceiling. I hope that Fred Barnes is wrong; that conservatives are not going to get screwed again. Boehner is going to have problem with his caucus. It’s estimated that there now are 50 HARD votes against ANY debt ceiling increase, and possibly as many as 25 more who will also vote NO. So it’s a given that if there is a deal, the Pelosi will have exacted her pound of flesh to deliver the votes.
But Boehner has an even bigger problem, and it’s hardly been mentioned. As soon as the deal is announced, everyone is going to stick a mike in the face of all the GOP WH candidates..announced and as yet unannounced (well..probably NOT Buddy Roehmer..sorry) and ask if they support the agreement.
And surprise, suprise..guess what?
Let’s count those who will be definitely opposed:
Palin, Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Perry, McCotter, Santorum, Paul, Bolton ( I’m adding him because I mlike him, I hope he gets in..he’ll make the debates really interesting)
These all appeal to the Tea Party sentiment, and any bill that passes the House only because of Democrat support won’t be a good one for these folks.
So, who’s left, that might support the “Grand Compromise”..why, it’s Romney and Huntsman ( I’m sending Gary Johnson out to play with Roehmer)
And that puts Romney and Huntsman squarely between a rock and a hard place. Both are probably inclined to go along with Boehner’s deal, but dare they do so. If they do support it, then the GOP field is effectively divided..cleaved along a clear ideological line. And both would be effectively finished. Dead. They could continue to battle i the primaries for the title of ” BIGGEST SPENDING MORMON” but they’d never win a primary. Romeny would lose NH.
So I suspect that Mitt ultimately opposes the bill. Huntsman will of course support it, instantly making him the MSM’s hand on favorite GOP candidate..
But then, what does Boehner do? What can he do. Force it through, in the face of near unanimous opposition from all those who want to be the Republican standard bearer against Obama next year? Right…that makes a lot of sense..
And that’s why we won’t get a deal done tomorrow.