I admit it. I’m opposed to the Speaker’s plan. But I couldn’t understand what he was doing even bringing the bill up. It made no sense. Surely he could do a quick count of his caucus.
Let’s start with one given: That there is no way that Boehner can get 218 votes from the GOP caucus to pass the bill.
That means that he’s depending on Pelosi to deliver the votes to pass it out of the House. They’re not there, and probably never were.
So Boehner can say he tried, he did his best, put it back on the Dems, and push for CCB and the BBA in the Senate.
To break it down further, there are FOUR possible House vote outcomes:
1. Bill passes, with 218 GOP votes.
2. Bill passes, with a majority of GOP caucus voting for it, and Dems supply the rest. ( maybe has a chance)
3. Bill passes, but a majority of GOP caucus votes AGAINST it..and Dems supply the rest. ( No way ..Boehner would be toast)
4. Bills fails, with 218 GOP votes againsst. ( Almost impossible..and if so, Boehner would be OUT as Speaker)
Pelosi controlls this, and I can’t see her going along with it. And Boehner HAS to know this.
So…….what’s the Speaker up to?