For months now, we’ve been told by the MSM that the GOP primary process is a forgone conclusion: that Romney will be the nominee. But since 80% of us aren’t just going gently into those primary nights, we’re also told that the sole reason for the current GOP primary kerfluffle is to figure out who will be the ani-Mitt, the last candidate standing, and the one who will ultimately concede victory to Mitt.
In reality, there’s a very good chance that coming into super Tuesday, there will be two or three top tier GOP candidates still standing, and that Mitt won’t be one of them.
Over the past months, as the polls of several candidates: Newt, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, have yo-yoed, Mitt’s numbers have stayed very constant. He’s stuck in the low 20’s. That appears to be his ceiling.
When several candidates have experienced doublde digit DROPS ion their polls over a few weeks’ time, Mitt has shown no ability to attract any of the support that has peeled away from other candidates.
In six weeks, we begin the early primary trifecta: Iowa, NH, and S. Carolina. Right now, Mitt’s not doing well.
He will come out of Iowa a weak 3rd and possibly a 4th place finisher. In NH, where he all but a favorite son, he’s been stuck at 40%, and as interest increases in that state, it’s more likely that his numbers will drop. If Mitt can’t manage a majority in NH, and has to settle for a close plurality, that doesn’t say much about his chances.
And now we come to South Carolina, the first state that is truly representative of the GOP base. He’s heading for a 3rd palce finish, and 4th place is still within striking distance.
Since 1980, S. Carolina has always picked the eventual GOP nominee. At some time, in a close contests, they’ll get it wrong, but no way a weak 3rd or 4th place finisher can be the nominee.
Mitt has money, no doubt about that, but much of it will be spent in the next 2 months, and as he fails to close the deal, not even come close, in each of the first three states, the money will start to dry up.