I suspect that far more astute political minds than mine have already begun to run through the implications, and scenarios, if Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2016. Yet despite endless MSM coronations and the semi-pathetic "Ready for Hillary" launch, we've yet to see any serious discussion of anything other than her imminent coronation as the Democrat nominee.
Right now, I would suggest that it's even money that she doesn't run, and it's more likely that she won't run with each passing day. A compelling argument can be made to that effect.
1. The GOP is likely to take the Senate, and increase seats in the House. They would then be favored to hold the Congress in 2016. Republicans in both the House and Senate will be more conservative as a group than in the current Congress, and thus far harder for a President Hillary to enact any legislation. ( And, oh yeah..don't forget that thanks to Dingy Harry, Democrats in the Senate minority can't do anything..)
2. Continuing next year, the Obamacare debacle will worsen. The GOP will make attempts to repeal it, and Obama will veto them. Democrats who supported the program, like Hillary,will become more toxic to the voters. She's tied to her support of the program; one could even say that her first effort at screwing up the nation's health system, Hillarycare, was the precursor of Obamacare.
3. Benghazi. It's going to get worse, far worse for Hillary. It all happened under her watch. It won't go away. Period.
4. The economy. It's not getting better, despite multiple attempts to fudge the numbers. There are no jobs to be had. Period. Let's see, could Hillary actually run for the White House, and, after 8 years of Obama's failed policies, blame the lousy economy on Bush? Aside from convincing Ed Schultz and Katrina vander Heuvel, that'd be a real stretch.
5. She's way past her "sell-by" date. Hillary's been a national figure, and perceived as a future president, since 1992. In 2016, that'll be coming up on a quarter century of trying for the Oval Office. She's starting to resemble a female Harold Stassen. As many as 30% of voters in 2016 weren't born when she and Bill first trotted out their "you get two for the price of one" shtick..
6. She's old, too old. In 2016, she'll be the same age as Reagan was when he was first elected. So we'd be entitled to resurrect all those "ageist" jokes that the Democrats used against the Gipper? Ya think? Reagan was vibrant, dynamic, the "great communicator."..he looked far younger than his years. Hillary is old, tired-looking, shrill, and getting dumpier-looking by the day, as gravity exerts its inevitable force on the human body. In an increasingly image driven campaign, that's no small thing. Looks DO matter. Yes, most Americans still admire Israel, but that doesn't mean they'd vote for a Golda Meir for their president .
7. She's tired. She just may not have it in her for two long years of campaigning. She knows firsthand what it takes, the effort involved, and she just may come to the realization that she doesn't have it to give anymore.
8. Ego. Last, and most crucial. She wants to be president more than anything, has wanted it for 25+ years; heck, probably since her days at Yale Law. In 2008, she thought it was her turn. She'd be handed the nomination on a silver platter, and then, after 8 years of Bush and war, she' d coast to the win . It was going to be a coronation of sorts, and a restoration of the Clinton dynasty. But life is what happens when you make plans, and in 2008, life was spelled B-A-R-A-C-K. So despite all the above reasons why NOT to run, she's likely to go ahead, except for the probability of her losing. That last final rejection would be too painful to bear. She couldn't cope with it. So she might well bail on 2016.
Right now, she's going to keep quiet, and keep busy...saying nothing serious, letting her army of sycophants speak for her in public. Right after the 2014 mid-terms, and the Democrat post-mortems about their many losses, she will be forced to publicly announce that she's running. If she doesn't , then she will invite multiple challenges, all from the left flank of the party, because they will need the two years to gear up, raise funds, build an organization from the ground up. The only way she can co-opt them is to declare that she's running..
And that's where it gets pretty interesting.
You can forget Biden. His running would be as if Obama was seeking a third term. And since Obama's poll numbers continue to head south, that's not likely to occur. Biden is chained to Obamacare, and "that dawg won't hunt, f'sure."
So we'll see a slew of Democrat possibilities. Warren, O'Malley, and Sweitzer have already had boomlets. Gov Moonbeam might decide to try again.There really aren't any other viable Democrats that come to mind. And happily for the nation, there's not one remotely even suitable Kennedy extant. There are no doubt other hopefuls; pretenders lurking in the weed, hoping that lightning might strike. Heck, even Bill de Blasio might take a stab at it. . He won't have managed to completely screw up NYC in little more than a year, so he can run on "two nations" and fairness, and legalized pot for all. There is a historical president. Recall John Vliet Lindsay, anyone? His abortive campaign for the White House was based on the premise, and slogan, that being Mayor of NYC was " the second toughest job in America." Except for having to remove the snow from the streets of Queens.
If Hillary doesn't run, the Democrat nominee will be an even more "evolved" progressive than Obama. The GOP candidate should come from the conservative spectrum of the party, and the campaign will resemble 1980, and 1984, and we all know how well they worked out for the Democrats. Remember the "highlight" of Mondale's acceptance speech?....."I just told you that I'm going to raise your taxes.." Ol' Fritz was decades ahead of his time.
OTOH, it's possible that faced with a hard leftie, a " little-known-except-to-the base-and-MSNBC" candidate, the GOPe might go gamble, go all-in one last time for a Gov. Christie, under the theory that a s0-called 'moderate" Republican could garner widespread support.
Which may explain why the Democrats, and the MSM are turning on the rotund New Jersey governor, with such a vehemence. They fear that if Hillary doesn't run, the GOP will nominate Christie, and he'd have an easy time in the general election.
But while Hillary struggles with what to do, she might consider consulting Aunt Eller: