What to look for in the New Hampshire primary results tomorrow.
The New Hampshire primaries are going to tell us quite a bit about our core assumptions. It’s very neat.Read More »
The lights of the Time Warner Cable Arena have been turned off. The delegates have gone home, and as the dust starts to settle, the effects of the Democratic National Convention comes into view.
Of course, we could rely on the national media for an evaluation of the effects of the Democratic rhetoric on the national psyche, and more importantly, on the upcoming election. But with the unabashed flagrance with which the media have pushed their agenda over the past decade, a more prudent approach would be to do the work ourselves.
I start with the Real Clear Politics tracking poll of likely voters showing President Obama leaping ahead of Republican Candidate Mitt Romney by a margin of 47.8% to 46% as of September 9. These findings, the obvious result of the favorable effects of the Democratic National Convention, reverse a positive trend for Romney that began on August 12, 2012, the day after he select Congressman Paul Ryan to serve as his Vice Presidential Candidate.
Although clearly, the Democrats’ pitch in North Carolina has dampened the momentum the one-two punch of the Ryan selection followed by the Republican National Convention provided the challengers, I suspect the Democratic convention will nevertheless not be remembered as the saving grace of the president’s 2012 reelection campaign.
For starters, it is common for candidates to come out of their conventions with as much as a 10% bump lasting about two weeks. But more importantly, as will be the case with many other facets of this campaign, I predict the Democratic sales pitch will be flushed away by the power of the facts they are trying desperately to ignore.
Oddly, the two most important facts that will erode the Obama lead are the same ones that sounded at the opening and closing of the Democratic National Convention: the debt and the state of the economy.
Perhaps no greater omen was dealt the delegates than the news of the national debt breaking $16 trillion on the very day the convention opened. It is a statistic that admittedly cannot be completely blamed on President Obama, but one to which no other President has added with such fury as that of the Democratic presidential nominee. And if the seemingly impossible coincidence were insufficient to convince the skeptic of a possible divine influence in the convention’s events, consider the astronomical odds of the very same convention closing with the economic news of an 8.1% unemployment rate made artificially low by the 844,000 workers who were not looking for jobs because they believed none to be available. And we can add that to the paltry 96,000 jobs the nation’s economy added in August. No flowery rhetoric or blind allegiance to President Obama and his ideology can dispel the harrowing effects of these economic numbers so close to the presidential election.
But perhaps the most ominous, and clearly the most awkward point in the convention was the abhorrent display of godlessness and infidelity displayed to the nation when Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaigosa entertained a motion from Governor Ted Strickland designed to recognize God in the Democratic Party’s platform and to affirm Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Stunned at the rejection of the motion by the assembled delegates, Villaigosa had to ask three times before fabricating his own results and ramming the proposal down the delegations’ throat. Although dismissed by the media as insignificant, no event in recent national politics has demonstrated a greater disconnect of a major political party’s view with that of the overwhelming majority of people than this spectacle.
Oh, the media will revel in the reports of President Obama’s resurgence in the national polls. They will celebrate his performance at the Convention and pick away at Mr. Romney’s conservatism as the cause of his campaigns’ alleged debacle. But the Obama’s resurgence is one that has come to early and is too frail to withstand the harshness of the economic environment in which it is challenged to survive. Like a seed finding itself forced to grow amidst a sea of mangroves, Obama’s presidential run will also whither and the roots of his campaign will find themselves insufficient to keep the effort alive.
It will undoubtedly be a long and arduous 52 days to election day, but in the end, the 47.8% President Obama scored in the September 9th poll will be the same number he will score in the popular votes on November 6.
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