Are You Ready For A Dead Heat Election?
I am going out on a limb and say that, by next week, the media will be declaring this race a dead heat. Right now we are hearing that Romney is behind. Yadda Yadda Yadda. They have been feeding this narrative since the election season started. Conservatives will be motivated like never before in November to get rid of Obama. The liberal media is scared.
Expect polling to tighten. If Romney is within one point or two points then turn out will hand this election to the Republicans and by extension the American people. Don’t let polls get you down. Especially ones involving an association with the liberal media. The polls they put out are biased because they continually show a larger Democratic partisan identification gap then what is realistic. What if these same pollsters showed less African-American likely voters, say 4%, wouldn’t this be a biased poll? Oh heck lets say no African-Americans likely voters. Would that be biased?
Pollsters typically try to get the ethnic make up of a poll correct. A certain percentage of White voters, Hispanic voters, African-American voters etc. If an election is between a Republican and Democrat, doesn’t a reasonable person agree, that including more Democrats would be a problem? Wouldn’t this tilt the poll numbers towards the Democrat in 95% if not 100% of the cases? Absolutely, considering most Republican tend to vote Republican. This is pure and simple logic. But conservatives who have identified the “bias” whether confirmed bias or some other are ignored or called stupid or other names. I have taken this statement from this article just to take issue with false assumption. Love the article and the website but the statement can’t stand.
When we reflect on accusations of bias in polling based on party identification, it seems hard to justify when most organizations do not adjust their polls based on this metric.
Now let me insert the word “race or minorities” instead of of the words “party identification”
When we reflect on accusations of bias in polling based on race or minorities, it seems hard to justify when most organizations do not adjust their polls based on this metric. (race)
If polling organizations did not adjust their polls for race or minorities, then this would clearly be a biased poll and people would be jumping up and down. Especially when approximately 95% of African-Americans and 68% of Latinos voted for Obama. But guess what? Polling organizations like Gallup (and most all) do adjust their polling to reflect racial or minoritiy percentages. But, hey, Republicans are a minority? At least according to most of the pollsters.
Most pollsters are using a lower percentage of Republicans than is realistic to show Obama is ahead. Is it deliberate? Does it matter? This is why the polls put out by or in conjunction with liberal media organizations are always suspect. We are on to them now, so expect the polls to tighten up.
Rasmussen is one of the best polling organizations over the last few elections.
In an excerpt from an article written Byron York:
And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. That’s not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.
This election will come down to turn out. I like our chances.
Update: It’s already started National Journal Poll. Guess we do not have to wait till next week.