Nearly every polling organization uses a D+2 to D+13 sample to show that Obama is ahead. Typically approximately 90% of Republicans vote Republican. Approximately 90% of Democrats vote for Democrats. Independents are split with most polls showing Romney winning Independents. But what if that is not the true nature of today’s electorate? What if there are more Republicans than Democrats?
According to Rasmussen, there are more affiliated Republicans than Democrats. According to the lastest Rasmussen party affiliation polling there are 36.8% Republicans and 34.2% Democrats and 29% other (i.e Independents etc) But even Rasmussen as been using a D+2 party identification in their polls. So if Rasmussen was using a Republican +2.6 advantage then even their poll would swing approximately 4 points in Romney’s direction. I believe Rasmussen is being conservative knowing that Dems would push to get their registration numbers up. Here is the latest Summary of Party Affiliation. I am getting more optimistic by the day. This also makes sense based on 2010 elections, today’s economy and Obama’s disastrous foreign policy. If this holds true on election day Romney will win the popular vote and most likely the Presidency.
As you can see in 2008 Obama and the Democrats had a 7.6% party affiliation advantage. Even the latest National Journal poll which shows a deadlocked race, partisan identification was 36% Dem, 29 % Rep and 30% Ind. This leans too much to the Democrats based on the facts cited above. This would match the partisan affiliation of 2008. But anybody in their right mind knows that is not going to happen. Assuming an even split of Democrats and Republicans, which would ignore Rasmussens Party Affiliation poll, Romney would be ahead in all the legitimate national polls.