ROMNEY INTERNAL POLLING — 337 Electoral Votes As Headlines Read: “Romney Ryan Landslide Victory”
ROMNEY-RYAN WIN IN LANDSLIDE!
The professional pundits and pollsters know the November 5th major polls 50% tie (see Gallup Rasmussen) means a Romney win. The internal polling suggests Romney-Ryan will be celebrating in 24 hours with those of us who have fought so hard for them and conservatism for the last four years.
You can lose 67 votes from my list (see below) and Romney still wins the Presidency.
Over-confident? It’s genetic, but I have examined honestly the polls combined with the intangible human element to this historic election.
Human Internals vs Pollster Science
Five decades of following the stories that make America what it is today, along with involvement in the back and forth swings from the financial, national security, and cultural cliffs offers some credibility to internal polling that the scientific polls cannot measure.
I disagree with professional pollsters fundamental presumptions that this is a “tight” election and will go “down to the wire.” People are only numbers and “margin of errors” to politicians and pollsters.
To the rest of us they are family, friends, and communities of individuals with emotions, natural human needs, desires, and inclinations to:
- Be fully employed.
- Choose health and personal welfare without government interference.
- Pay less than $4.00 a gallon for gas, milk, and a loaf of bread.
Back to the Future by Reading Between the Lines:
So here we are. It may be that this simple human needs calculation will give Romney-Ryan what I believe will be the largest electoral college landslide since Reagan’s 1980 campaign against the lack-luster and over-reaching liberal Jimmy Carter and his “misery index.”
With the main stream media gloating over Gallup Carter’s “polling edge” of 4% to 8% lead weeks prior to the 1980 election, history teaches us the value of polls set against the non-measurable enthusiasm metric of Americans for real change.
“Ronald Reagan clobbered Jimmy Carter winning 51.7% to Carter’s 41% — a 10 point-plus victory in the popular vote. Third place Congressman John Anderson managed a mere 6.6%.
Reagan carried 44 states for a total of 489 votes. Carter won 6 states plus the District of Columbia for 49 electoral votes.”
Along with Dick Morris the one honest pollster willing to make a landslide victory prediction for the Romney-Ryan ticket is Michael Barone with 315 electoral votes going to Romney. Here’s why he is right.
Human Internals for the Prediction:
Time changes things as much as things change the times. Any polling sample conducted upon the premise of 2008 and before is fundamentally flawed. Why?
> 39.1 percent of voters now identify themselves as Republicans and 33.3 percent identify themselves as Democrats.
> Independents have increased slightly, claiming 26.4 percent of the electorate in Oct. 2008 compared to 27.5 percent in Oct. 2012.
Then there are these very real but less measurable reasons for poll flaws which cannot reliably predict a swing to the GOP:
- All polling samples among mainstream media polls have traditionally followed the past Democrat skewed system offering from 2% to 12% Democrat oversampling.
- The 2008 election of Barack Obama was conducted on a scale weighted with the history of the moment – the first African American to run for President.
- The Tea Party conservative renaissance, a spontaneous 2009 born ground-swell of traditional American values voters, did not exist prior to that time.
- Tea Party driven elections of 2010 stunned the press, pollsters, and politicians as the largest change in congressional seats for the GOP occurred in over 70 years. That momentum continues.
- The mainstream liberal supporting media invented its own narrative about the conservative grassroots movements and believes it four years later.
- Sustained social networking with Facebook and Twitter only began to show its connectivity power in 2008. It continues through today.
- Polling: Old methods of relying upon telephone land-lines and voter identification presumptions are no longer a modern reality.
- Turnout & enthusiasm gap: Whatever the pollsters predict, they are in for a surprise. Dynamics of 2012 are not 2008.
- Early voter trends Romney as shown in the swing state sample of Ohio already reversing the Obama 2008 margin of 250,000+.
- Independent values voters have been alienated by Obama’s “misery index,” broken promises, and a perceived attack upon religion (58 million is a lot of Catholics)
Truman and Reagan’s Blue Dog Democrats replaced by FORWARD Leaning Progressive Apparatchiks
They were different days. Tip O’Neill is dead and the Democratic Party of yesteryear is in name only.
The Democrats of the 1960’s along with the “Blue Dog” are an extinct breed with only 25 Blue Dog congressmen on record as caucus members today.
For all their rhetoric about “worker’s rights,” and “redistribution,” and “fairness,” and centralized government control with the same slogan “FORWARD” used by Lenin during the Bolshevik Revolution and Mao in China, the Democratic Party of yesteryear could be renamed the, “Socialist Workers Democrat Union” and no one would flinch.
This coalition of hard left apparatchiks may be strong, but it cannot sustain the 2008 enthusiasm now that their leader has abandoned the center and alienated the conservatives of America entirely.
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTIONS
Left to right, west to east coast, this is the map I see based upon listed “human internals”:
States West Coast to East Votes Running Totals
Alaska 3 3
Arizona 11 14
Nevada 6 20
Utah 6 26
Idaho 4 30
Montana 3 33
Wyoming 3 36
North Dakota 3 39
South Dakota 3 42
Colorado 9 51
Kansas 6 57
Nebraska 5 62
Oklahoma 7 69
Arkansas 6 75
Texas 38 113
Louisiana 8 121
Iowa 6 127
Missouri 10 137
Wisconsin 10 147
Ohio 18 165
Indiana 11 176
Michigan 16 192
Kentucky 8 200
Tennessee 11 211
Mississippi 6 217
Alabama 9 226
Florida 29 255
Georgia 16 271
South Carolina 9 280
North Carolina 15 295
West Virginia 5 300
Virginia 13 313
Pennsylvania 20 333
New Hampshire 4__ 337
November 7th Exit polls will offer weeks of pundit examinations and press head-scratching but expect headlines to read:
ROMNEY-RYAN WIN IN A SHOCKER ELECTORAL LANDSLIDE FOR GOP NOT SEEN SINCE 1980
James Michael Pratt is a New York Times bestselling author of inspirational fiction and non-fiction, editor and owner of Jerusalem Reports, and frequent contributor to Red State and other conservative sites. His personal website includes biographical and other information regarding his work. He can also be found on FACEBOOK and Twitter.