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Missouri Speaks! Analysis On Health Care Freedom Act Blowout

The Missouri Healthcare Freedom Act, known statewide as Prop C, has passed.

The final total was 71.1% yes on Prop C, 28.9% No on Prop C.

I’d like to congratulate the large number of conservative candidates who made Prop C such an important part of the their campaign. Win or lose, making Prop C an important part of your campaign raised awareness – and I believe the nation owes you a thank you for delivering.

I’d also like to congratulate all the conservative groups out there that worked so hard to get out the message and the vote.  The “Tea Party” gets a lot of media attention, but those of us in the trenches know very well that there are many organizations established long before any Tea Party groups that make up the backbone of conservative organization.  The media may not give you props – but we know who you are, and we know who does the work.

I am also  pleased at the local Tea Party groups and the way they pushed so hard for Prop C, with many individuals contributing art and time and legwork to push out the message.

You beat the editorial boards of the Post Dispatch and the KC Star. You beat the progressive groups who proved a paper tiger (note that when massive amounts of money aren’t delivered to unions and progressive causes, their impact on the vote is miniscule).

National Impact

Across the country tomorrow, people will wake up to news that a state voted over 70% to reject the unconstitutional mandate of Obamacare.  And don’t for a second buy the supremacy clause arguments.  The federal government can’t force the state to enforce Obamacare without the state exchanges, and without state resources and cooperation, Obamacare can’t operate  Yes, the matter will go to the courts, but the voice of the people has weight in a courtroom.

This win is only the beginning. Other states get their weigh-in later in the year, including votes on state constitutional amendments.  Other states like Virginia also have their lawsuits moving forward.  The win on Prop C is only the first one.  The brazen attempt to pay off Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Bart Stupak has been repudiated by the voters of the state of Missouri by a wide, wide margin.  This will strike fear into the heart of the Democrats, who now are forced to confront the fact that Obamacare has been soundly rejected in the first chance that voters had to address it.

Don’t be fooled for a second.  If the measure had failed, or passed with anything lower than 60%, this would be front page news from now until election day.  I feared anything under 60%, but 71% is indeed a mighty win.

An internal poll taken at some point before the campaigning had the measure near 75-25.  I don’t know if that was general public or Republicans only, but it was a cause for complacency in Prop C donors.   After $400,000 from Missouri Hospital Association in opposition to the proposition, and clear opposition (made up mostly of sneering and mockery) from the state press and state Democrats, the measure passed 71% from the general public.  When was the last time any statewide proposition passed with that kind of margin?  Democrats know what that means.  It means their base is dispirited and tens of thousands of them supported the measure.

Democratic Ballots

From some back of the envelope calculations, 15% of ballots that were cast in the Democratic Senate primary statewide voted Yes on Prop C.  Even in St Louis City, almost 20% of the ballot cast just for Robin Carnahan also voted Yes on Prop C.  The number is even higher for the State Auditor race.  When 1 in 6 Democratic primary votes decide they want the state of Missouri to defend them from the signature issue of the Democratic Party, you’ve got a recipe for electoral disaster.

Senator Claire McCaskill, Attorney General Chris Koster, and GovernorJay Nixon got a message tonight.  So did Congressman Ike Skelton (MO-4th).  Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan just had the wind knocked out of her national fundraising and Congressman Russ Carnahan (Mo-3) is going to find himself defending that healthcare vote over and over, especially in the rural areas of Jefferson County (72% Yes) and St Genevieve County (61% Yes).

Statewide, almost 100,000 voters pulled Yes on Prop C but did not vote in the Republican Senate Primary.  Note that Missouri is also an open primary system.  Crossover Democrats who wished to vote for weaker Republican candidates and who voted No On C wouldn’t count in this total.  Those are astonishing numbers.

St Louis County

St Louis County of course has special signifigance for the St Louis Tea Party Coalition.  In April, we organized a last-minute effort around phonebanking, an internet campaign, and some email blasts to encourage people to vote against Prop A, the Metro Tax.  The results were very disappointing.  Our initial efforts to turn from protest to GOTV were not effective, and we were forced to come to grips with the reality that there was no magic pot of voters who would rise from their slumber and ride to the rescue.

So we organized.  We started building groups of volunteers.  We passed out constitutions, paid real attention to building our email lists.  We started the Block Captains program.  And we focused on campaign work and training.  How did we do?

These were the results from Prop A in St Louis County on the April Ballot.  The measure was opposed by 93% of the Tea Party online respondents, but supported by many civic leaders, many local Republicans, and backed with over $1.5 million dollars in spending, including a GOTV program from left-wing groups, sophisticated marketing and direct mail campaigns, and of course, threats of doom from politicians and Metro management.

YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,801 62.91%

NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 55,883 37.09%

That’s what being outspent 2000:1 and failing to organize early will get you.

Here are the results for Prop C in St Louis County for the August ballot.

YES  ………………95,217    61.5%

NO ………………..59,598    38.5%

It’s an almost complete reversal of the ballot.  But don’t fool yourselves that St Louis County is some Republican bastion.  St Louis County voted 55-45 for John Kerry over George Bush, and 60-40 Barack Obama over John McCain.  Prop A in April 2010 mirrored the 2008 vote percentages in the presidential election.

Prop C in August 2010, just four months later, registered a huge flip in the ballot.

Summary

Democrats have been downplaying the significance of Prop C from the get-go, but a 71-28 thumping is news.  Expect to see the state media downplay the value of Prop C in the fight against Obamacare, but expect a few cracks in their armor to peek through when folks on the talk shows candidly admit this is “a troublesome sign for the Obama administration, for the Democrats in November, and a shot in the arm to the Republicans and especially the Tea Party groups.”

Don’t let it fool you.  This was our Concord Bridge.  It was a minor skirmish fought at the beginning of the war, but it will resonate across the country.

So do your part, patriots.  Spread the story of Missouri’s win on the Healthcare Freedom Act far and wide.  Share it with your friends on Facebook and Twitter – pass the information on to your representatives and your candidates.  Don’t let the media steal this victory from us.  This is a national victory, and one that I hope will add fuel to the resurgence of hope for those who continue to work to maintain a constitutional republic.

This video is for the St Louis Tea Party, from our 1 year anniversary rally on the steps of the Arch.  The video showcases the patriots who worked in the last year from the eyes of those who took pictures and video.  It made a hardened opposition researcher cry.  And I put it here for a reason.  We’re gathering under the Arch one more time, on 9-12.  And we need you there.  We need you to help us make this the biggest rally in the nation, supported by patriots from across the Midwest.

The people of Missouri have spoken, and we stand ready to support every other state in the defense of the natural rights of the people.  Come join us on 9-12. We need your talent and your organization and your passion in keeping the momentum going.

9-12 Tea Party In St Louis, Missouri, hosted by the St. Louis Tea Party Coalition and the Tea Party Patriots.

Sign up for more information on the event, or contact rivercitytea@gmail.com for individual or group questions.

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