Don’t Look Now, But The GOP CAN Win The Senate in 2010
Ever since Robert Gibbs mentioned that the GOP might retake the House in the midterm the pundits have been all over the story. It was as if they have finally been given permission to come out and say what everyone has been thinking since the spring. Retaking the house is only half the story. Call me Crazy but a GOP takeover of the US Senate is not out of the realm of possibilities.
Right now the Democrats control 59 Senate votes (56 Democrats, two independents, and the Democrat that will replace Robert Byrd). To maintain control of the Senate they will have to keep at least 50 votes (in the event of a tie the SCHMOTUS Joe Biden casts the tie breaker and for the purposes of this exercise lets assume he will vote with his party).
According to the Real Clear Politics averages as of today there are 48 Democratic seats that are either not up for election or safely polling in the Democratic party’s favor. There are 42 GOP seats that are either not up for election or safely polling in the Republican party’s favor. The GOP would have to win 9 out of the 10 races up for grabs to take over the Senate, Still a long shot, but not unheard of.
RCP averages as of 7/13:
- CA -Boxer (D) +2.5% over Fiorina (R) Fiorina has dramatically closed gap and she has big bucks
- CO-Primary isn’t till 8/10 but right now either GOP Candidate leads either Democrat
- FL-Crist (I) + 4.5% over Rubio(R), Meek (D) way back
- IL-Kirk (R) +2% over Giannoulias (D)
- MO-Blunt (R) +5% over Carnahan (D)
- NV-Angle (R) +1% over Reid (D) Reid is gaining on Angle
- OH- Portman (R) even with Fisher (D)
- PA-Toomey (R) +2.3 over Sestak (D) there are signs of momentum on Toomy’s side
- WA-Another August Primary but it seems that Patty Murray (D) has a 3% lead of most likely GOP Candidate Dino Rossi. Rossi is well financed, should be close to election day.
- WI- Feingold (D) + 2% over Johnson (R) (Feingold the long term incumbent is in huge trouble)
There isn’t a race among the ten above that is not winnable by the GOP. Of course the reverse is also true, there is not a race above that cannot be won by the Democrats. The Democrats only have to win two of the above to maintain control of the senate, but this is politics and stranger things have happened. This is going to be a very interesting political season.