As I’ve mentioned before, Mary Landrieu has taken a dive in the polls last year. PPP ran two polls, one last February and one in August, both showing her up +10. PPP usually gives very, very pro-Democratic results a ways out from an election, but only goes very Democratic when you get closer to an election. Last month, a year out from their original +10 results, another PPP poll showed her only up +1.5
Another Democratic firm, Hickman Analytics, ran a poll at the beginning of March, with results that should absolutely terrify her.
The Democratic-heavy sample of 404 breaks down as 35% Democratic voters and 30% Republican. However, when it comes to ideology, the stats are different. Only 18% consider themselves liberal, while 57% label themselves conservative. If you break that down further, 12% consider themselves liberal, and 5% only think they are somewhat liberal. 21% considered themselves somewhat conservative, with 36% considering themselves conservative. The elusive moderates were nearly as well represented as liberals, moreso if you include the “Don’t know” crowd with them.
Bill Cassidy is the leading Republican running against her. When asked which of the two they’d support, 46% of the likely to vote crowd went with Cassidy. Only 42% went with Landrieu. That is within the 5% margin of error
But, this one isn’t: If you take Cassidy’s name out of it and have her run against a generic Republican, then you see that margin widen, 47-36.
Louisiana is firmly a toss-up for 2014, and should stay that way, possibly barring one thing, and even then, it doesn’t guarantee a victory. It just plays to her strength. That would be the Keystone XL Pipeline.
Of those polled in the Hickman poll, 67% supported the pipeline, with only 12% opposing. Since this poll came out, Landrieu has attacked with renewed vigor to get the Keystone approved.
The State Department’s Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone, released at the end of January, concluded that the pipeline would have a minimal effect on the environment.
Ms. Landrieu is one of several vulnerable Democratic senators up for re-election this fall and busily burnishing their pro-business, pro-jobs credentials.
Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Kay Hagan of North Carolina–all in the same boat–are also pushing hard for the pipeline’s approval, and signed a letter to the president urging approval.
And, Obama is hilariously putting this off.
President Obama has said he hopes to have a decision in the next few months.
The Keystone XL would be a boon to Democrats running in red states. However, Obama has already stood against it before, and Obama’s pride could very well cometh before Landrieu’s fall.