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September 2011 Primary Preference Poll of RedStaters – NOT AN OFFICIAL, SCIENTIFIC, OR REPRESENTATIVE POLL

[NOTE FROM MANAGEMENT - Though it should go without saying, this poll is neither official, nor sanctioned by RedState management, nor any more scientific or accurate than any online poll posted in the diaries of any other open community website by a community member. As Ron Paul's results have amply demonstrated over the last four years, interactive/internet polls are rarely dispositive of actual status, sentiment, or electoral potential in any setting, let alone when posted in the community forum section of an open community site (the final line of this blog post should provide one of many major clues why that is).  Bearing that in mind, feel free to enjoy reading this diary and participating in its poll.   -JE]

 

RedStaters -

It is time once again to check the pulse of the RedState community.  It has been quite an eventful last couple of months in the development of the Republican presidential field.   Now’s the time to get an updated measure of RedStaters’ presidential primary preferences.  NOTE:  Make sure to look over the full list of candidates provided.  Beyond the current candidates, I have also included Christie, Giuliani and Palin to capture their potential impact on the race if they were to enter (as explained below). 

Please take one minute to go here and participate in the poll. 

For those who may need it, here’s some background information about the Primary Preference Poll methodology:
As the Republican presidential field is taking shape, the existence of so many personalities vying for your support creates an interesting dynamic that would be great to explore. Please take a moment to participate in a simple but effectively-designed presidential primary preference poll (through SurveyMonkey) that will give a glimpse into understanding the dynamics of support for various candidates among active RedStaters at this time.  Not only will this poll give an indication of first preferences among the responders, it will also give an indication of who is waiting in the wings if a candidate falters or withdraws.  (For instance, what impact would Chris Christie’s, Sarah Palin’s or Rudy Giuliani’s entry into the race have – and who will be most affected?  OR Which candidates are most correlated in their supporters?)
[See this write-up of the analysis done for May 2011's inaugural poll of RedStaters.  For June's results write-up, click here.]

How this is done – the Pick 5 framework:  From the list provided, simply cast your vote for your #1 preferred candidate.  Then, assume that your #1 preferred candidate is no longer available to choose:  who would be your candidate of choice among the rest?  Do this again for your 3rd, 4th and 5th choice.  You will have to pick your top 5 choices.  [Note: For the 5th choice, I do give you an option to say you would not vote in the primary, but please do not use this if at all possible.  Usually at that stage you would still vote - if nothing else, voting for someone as a vote against someone you perceive to be even worse!!  ;o) ]

I hope this will become a monthly (or so) snapshot of the leanings of RedState participants – giving an indicator of shifts and trends in the attractiveness of the various campaigns.

Please participate in the September edition of this poll and encourage others to participate as well.  It only takes a minute.  It would be great to get a large set of RedStater responses to analyze.

And…  DON’T BE A DEMOCRAT!  Participate once – but only once – for this September survey.

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