If Republicans Had Won 40% of the Hispanic Vote
If Republicans had won 40% of the Hispanic vote they wouldn’t have won another state. Nada! The Hispanic voters impact in this election was extremely over stated by the national media and Republican pundits. It had very little impact on this election.
Below is the population of the Hispanics in Florida and the 9 other battle ground states that were decided by less then 8% and their total populations….
The nine non Florida states–5036029–64858873
That’s just 5 million Hispanics in those 9 states. Excluding Florida, the percentage of the population in the other 9 battleground states that were Hispanic was just 7.776%. Since the national percentage is 16.3% and yet, just 10.0% of Hispanics voted nationally, its safe to assume a similar drop would occur in these states as well. That would mean just 4.763% of Hispanics in the 9 battleground states voted excluding Florida. But lets be generous and make it an even 5% for easier calculations.
Nationally, of the 10.0% of Hispanics that voted, Obama won 68.6% and Romney 29.6%. In Florida however, the number was 60-39 Obama winning. This means in those 9 other battleground states it was more like 70-28 Obama on average. If 5% of the vote is 70%-28%, then that would mean the average difference between Obama and Romney in the actual vote would have been 3.5% of real Hispanic votes going to Obama and 1.4% of real Hispanic votes going to Romney. A net loss in the election in those 9 battle ground states of just 2.1% because of the Hispanic vote. Does anybody think the Republicans could EVER get 50% of the Latino vote no matter what they do? Even if the Republicans could get 40% of the Hispanic vote, it would mean a difference in the overall election in those 9 battleground states of just 1% of the vote totals[3%-2%]. That’s just a 1.1% improvement with a dramatic change of 28% to 40%. That’s very little vote for such huge attention.
This change would not have changed the results in any of those 9 battle ground states. A 1% increase for every 5% Hispanic vote would have Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia closer, but all would have still gone to Obama by at least 1.5%. Even if you buy the CNN exit poll from Colorado where it was supposedly 75-23, it still would have been a 0.5 loss if Romney had made the split 60-40. The other 6 states would not even have put a dent in the final results.
Which bring us to Florida. In Florida, Romney lost the Latino vote just 39-60. We are already near 40%. Not getting 50% did cost Romney Florida because it was so close. But getting to 40% in Florida would have made no difference. And because Florida is about the Cuban vote, its much more debatable how many Cubans would move toward the Republicans because of the illegal immigration issue.
I think the much larger concern for Republicans then getting to 40% nationally with Hispanics and getting that extra 1% vote total in those 9 battleground states is what happens if that 10.0% national Hispanic vote became 16.3% if illegals were given the right to vote. Then Republicans would be in real trouble.
Republicans should continue to make a push for the Hispanic vote. A compromise on illegal immigration should be looked at. However, illegals can never be given voting rights. This is where the compromise must end.
And Jeb Bush’s protege Marco Rubio should NOT be shoved down our throat whether he tastes good or not. We need the establishment to stop telling us who is electable and allow for a real primary, not another dog a pony show where they try and control the entire process.