Obama has not-so-subtly asked David Paterson not to run for reelection. Initially it appears that Paterson is resistant to the
suggestion direct order, and it's kind of a frightening thing that the President would intervene in State politics in this way. However, Paterson doesn't have much of a chance of being reelected Governor of New York, and he knows that too. I don't want to say he's a loser because it already appears that Obama has decided he is before I came to that conclusion.
But there is face to be saved and reputation to protect, mostly Paterson's. Obama will not leave him hanging out to dry. My guess is that he will bow out after a few months of 'resistance', which will give him the opportunity to save face among his supporters and pretend that he wasn't Told What To Do by Obi. Obama will 'forgive' his 'intransigence' and Paterson will throw his support behind whoever Obi wants to be the next governor of New York, eliminating the problems Obi's team thinks he's causing for the Democrats and ushering in the next set of problems.
There might be a few controversial news stories between now and then but my guess is that not very much money will be spent before Paterson leaves the field. In fact I reckon that his 'campaign' will spend less than a half a million dollars before he gives up and folds. In the end, Paterson will do what Barack says, but he needs a little time to save face before he caves in.
He'll cave, and then Obama will get him a job somewhere at a higher salary than he already has, with more benefits and a sweetheart promise that he might come back to a governorship in the future. It'll be a teaching gig or a consulting gig, but Paterson will make money in the end, and he'll be unburdened from the too-large shoes he obviously cannot fill in New York. I see the words "Harvard University Fellow" in his future.
My guess is that five years from now David Paterson will be a multimillionaire and an important figure because of the new gig Obama gets him after 'ousting' him from the Governorship of NYS. Let's see.