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Zogby Has This a 10 Point Race -- In a Word: Hogwash.

John Zogby this morning has issued his daily tracking poll and it shows a 10 point Obama advantage nationwide. No way!

If anyone had any doubt about the accuracy of the polls — the more I hear about a 10 or 11 or 12 point lead nationwide for The One, the more I discount all polls. (I am reminded that CBS News in the days leading up to Clinton’s beating Dole had Clinton at points with a 22 point advantage, approximately 12 or 13 days out — Clinton won by 8 and there was no great surge causing a tightening of that race. Trust me, I was at events with Dole as an elected official — great man, terrible campaign. Even then, however, the polls were out of whack.)

There is simply no way that these polls are accurate — first, they aren’t supported by the specific state by state polling, including most significantly, Zogby’s own state analysis. Second, anecdotally, I do not personally know one person who has publicly declared to me their support for Obama. If these polls are correct, how can that be? Third, anecdotally, I drive nearly a 1,000 miles each week for my job – I have driven all over the state of Michigan in recent weeks – the amount of visible support for Obama doesn’t even come close to the level of visible support seen for John Kerry from 4 years ago. It’s not even close. (Incidentally, other members have posted that they have noticed similar disparity in their respective states.) In fact, as a further aside, my daughter was commenting last night about how many houses she had seen with other democrat candidate lawn-signs, only to be joined by a McCain-Palin sign.

These polls are hogwash.

P.S. Please note where John McCain and Sarah Palin are today, tomorrow and Friday. Hmmm. Amongst others, Iowa? I thought that this had been unofficially written off weeks ago — me thinks some internal polling is showing that the Joe the Plumber/Socialism angle may be getting some traction in Iowa. Remember CNN – “Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are off the radar and he’s pulling out” – seems that might have been in error.

P.P.S. Here is my further rampant speculation, but that said, I know enough people who have been part of these national campaigns in the past to give me a sense that I am not far off — in other words, very educated speculation; I will lay money on the fact that internals are showing the race tightening significantly in New Mexico and Colorado, which is what I suspected all along and that Iowa, which had been given up for dead weeks ago by the major media, ain’t dead after all. (See above) More significantly in Florida and Ohio, I am nearly certain (based on the way internals worked in 2000 and 2004 and were relied upon in scheduling, as relayed to me by people who knew at that time)that internals are showing McCain regaining a significant lead. Finally, I’ll bet dimes to donuts that we see Obama visit Pennsylvania again in the 3 or 4 days (directly after his visit to Hawaii, perhaps), because his and McCain’s internals are both showing that McCain is gaining significantly in Pennsylvania — to the point that it is a near dead heat.

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