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Election Preview: Tale of Eight States Two Days Out

From the Granite State to the Rockies

Here is a Sunday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt.

New Hampshire – BO 52.7 and JM 42.0; Undecideds 5.3; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.3 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 52.8 and JM 45.2. Obama wins New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania – BO 51.3 and JM 44.0; Undecideds 4.7; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.7 will break 5/7 for JM and 2/7 for BO – based on 2008 Democratic Primary Performance. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 51.1 and JM 46.9. Obama wins Pennsylvania, unless conservative turnout is huge.

Ohio – BO 48.8 and JM 44.6; Undecideds 7.6; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 5.6 will break 4/7 for JM and 1/7 for BO, remainder to 3rd parties – based on 2008 Democratic Primary Performance. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 48.6 and JM 48.8. John McCain wins Ohio, but this is function of turnout. Strong conservative turnout, then ok; if not, Obama will carry state.

Florida – BO 50.0 and JM 45.8; Undecideds 4.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.2 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 49.8 and JM 48.2. Obama wins Florida, but this is a function of turnout. Strong conservative turnout, then McCain will eke this one out.

Virginia – BO 49.8 and JM 46.0; Undecideds 4.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.;Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.2 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 49.6 and JM 48.4. Obama wins Virginia, but this is a function of turnout. Strong conservative turnout, then McCain will eke this one out, as well.

Indiana – BO 46.8 and JM 47.3; Undecideds 5.9; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.;Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.9 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 47.1 and JM 50.9. McCain wins Indiana.

Missouri – BO 47.3 and JM 48.0; Undecideds 4.7; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.;Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.7 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 47.2 and JM 50.8. McCain wins Missouri.

Colorado – BO 50.5 and JM 45.0; Undecideds 4.5; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.;Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.5 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 50.4 and JM 47.6. Obama wins Colorado.

Here is where I come down tonight – Obama wins New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. McCain wins Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri.

Electoral prediction as of Sunday night: BO – 286 and JM – 252. Two factors which will invariably alter this outcome one way or the other: Conservative turnout and Pennsylvania. If conservative turnout is high, the JM has a real chance. Whomever wins Pennsylvania will win this election.

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