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Election Preview: Eight States That Will Determine Election

And, Michigan, too.

Here is my Monday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt.

New Hampshire – BO 52.8 and JM 42.0; Undecideds 5.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.2 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 52.9 and JM 45.1. Obama wins New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania – BO 51.3 and JM 43.7; Undecideds 5.0; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.0 will break 5/7 for JM and 2/7 for BO – based on 2008 Democratic Primary Performance. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 51.2 and JM 46.8. Obama wins Pennsylvania.

Ohio – BO 49.0 and JM 45.8; Undecideds 5.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 4.2 will break 4/7 for JM and 1/7 for BO, remainder to 3rd parties – based on 2008 Democratic Primary Performance. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 48.6 and JM 49.2. McCain wins Ohio.

Florida – BO 48.6 and JM 46.8; Undecideds 4.6; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.6 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 48.5 and JM 49.5. McCain wins Florida.

Virginia – BO 49.8 and JM 45.5; Undecideds 4.7; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.7 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 49.7 and JM 48.3. Obama wins Virginia.

Indiana – BO 46.2 and JM 47.6; Undecideds 6.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 4.2 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 46.6 and JM 51.4. McCain wins Indiana.

Missouri – BO 47.5 and JM 48.0; Undecideds 4.5; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.5 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 47.4 and JM 50.5. McCain wins Missouri.

Colorado – BO 50.8 and JM 45.3; Undecideds 3.9; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 1.9 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO – 50.5 and JM 47.5. Obama wins Colorado.

Here is where I come down tonight – Obama wins New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. McCain wins Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri.

Electoral prediction as of Monday night: BO – 286 and JM – 252. However, if Republicans can get out the vote in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, McCain will win this election.

Pay attention to Michigan — if Michigan is 6.1 pts or higher for Obama, then this will be a long night for McCain; if Michigan is 5 – 6 pts. for Obama, then this will be a long night for everyone. If Michigan is 4.9 pts. or less for Obama, then this will be a long night for Obama.

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