Nope. Not the one the political operatives are fond of talking about. Not the violent uprising of conservatives who cling bitterly to guns and Bibles against an aggressive governmental machine. Not the angry white men and the increasingly angry white women against the poor, isolated, besmirched minority groups. Not even the popular uprising that is beginning among the plantation classes within the Democratic Party. Nope.
This one will be fun to watch from the sidelines as we watch them implode.
The Democratic Party, inured with the power of the past four years in Congress and two years into the Obama presidency, are going to have a right fit. There are three ideological, not cultural, groups that make up the party and these factions are going to have a serious knife fight. On the right are the relative moderate side of the party. They are going to be furious with their friends on the left because they lost power due to the Left's over-reaching. The far Left progressives will blame the moderates because instead of tacitly accepting the complete takeover of America by social democratic forces, the moderates listened to their voters and resisted. But, the real bear in this fight will be the realists. They are committed collectivists in the mold of the progressives, but they are hellbent on keeping and expanding their power. The fact the Obama/Pelosi/Reid coalition frittered it away will make their teeth hurt and their eyes bulge. This will be one dogfight I can truly appreciate watching.
Let's give the factions simple, non-offensive names. Let's call the moderates the Mainstreamers. They are the ones who believe in the American Dream but just want to make things a little more even, while getting a little richer and more powerful in the process. The realists will be called the Clintonistas. Most of them aligned with the Clintons in the first place, and they are not afraid to outright lie about their intentions. Like their namesake, the Sandinistas, they like to work under the cover of darkness and in the margins. They are True Believers, but Fabian socialists who think they need to sneak socialist dogma into the culture without scaring the populace. Finally, we have the far Left progressives who are not afraid of a fight and do not want to trick anyone. They believe their little socialist dog-and-pony show will wow the spectators and win them over. We'll call them the Obamaniacs.
Now, my belief in this knock-down, drag-out brawl is premised on the idea these collectivists NEED to be in power to have relevance. Amongst the rest of the population, they are usually just everyday, pedestrian con-artists and moonbats with strange ideas. But, given the power of government, they are important people who have status and prestige. What's more, they have easy access to money. If they need something, there is usually some joker willing to pay for their services. But, without the power of the purse and the power to exert control, they are not too impressive. They will immediately feel the absence of that steady source of ego-boosting power, especially in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the closeness of the edge will make that body a virtual tomb. Even if they keep the Senate, they will have very little elbow room without the tacit approval of Republicans.
Obama stands alone.
First off, they are going to have to beg the Republicans for payoff money for their constituencies. Democrats have to bribe a significant portion of their base with fiscal stimuli to keep their machines running. If that money starts to dry up, they are going to start watching their base rumble with fury. Can you begin to imagine the cock-fighting over who gets this grant and what group gets cut? It will be Democratic politician versus Democrat to see who gets the pork to feed their base in a rapidly shrinking pile of dough.
Then, the anger will begin to grow. The Clintonistas were previously successful at holding together the party and that experience gives them credence to the Mainstreamers. The Mainstreamers are already furious with Pelosi and Obama for putting them in such grave danger. However, there may not be many House Mainstreamers left, so the Clintonistas will have to target some Obamaniacs for their loss of power and especially money.
The Obamaniacs will not go down without a fight.
They have their clean, articulate, young president. He will side with them. He will help them get the sop to the hogs.
Still seething inside, the Clintonistas are ready for the street fight. When Obama took down Hillary, they took it in stride. Remember, Clintonistas are quite duplicitous and crafty. They've been good, loyal party members who have done the bidding of the Obamaniacs for a couple of years. Now, they have a chance to retake the party apparatus and expel the Obamaniacs. This will be their first object. They will make the Obamaniacs pay for destroying the party, and in turn, rip the party to shreds.
In the backrooms, the Mainstreamers will be forced to work with the Clintonistas just to survive. In the House there may not be many of them yet, but in the Senate, the Mainstreamers still have some pull. They will use this to their greatest advantage. They will also not pull a punch when it comes to their position.
In the Senate, the Democratic Party could easily lose thirty of the thirty-seven seats in play this election. That lesson will not be lost on the Mainstreamers and Clintonistas. They will see their own seats in play in the next election and they are the class of 2006. There are quite a few of them.
Democrats will have at least 22 seats in the Senate to defend. They have quite the lineup to protect. Sen Bill Nelson of increasingly conservative Florida has to defend himself. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Jim Webb of Virginia are all going to have to represent Republican surging states while keeping their narrowing base. John Tester of Montana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri will be behind before they even run. Debbie Stabenow, Amy Klobuchar, and Herb Kohl will face increasingly restive voters in their more moderate states. All told, the Republicans have a good shot at taking eleven seats from the Democrats and that is not including Cantwell and Feinstein on the recently competitive Left Coast.
When seen through collectivist eyes, the next election cycle doesn't look promising, at all.
There is no way the Obama administration will be able to count on those votes in the Senate. These senators will find working with the Obamaniacs problematic, especially since we are not going away. Even with a big win in the House and a stripping of power from the Senate, Obama stands alone.
We cannot allow such a poisonous viper to inhabit the heart of our political process. The Mainstreamers and the Clintonistas, looking over their shoulders for us, will be careful and deliberate. They will have to show independence from the Obamaniacs who will become more shrill by the day.
I could be wrong. But, the behavior of these people up until now has been shockingly egotistical and contemptuous. They are addicted to power like a crack-addled junkie and will mug, rob, or steal whatever they must to keep a hold on their drug. No Obamaniac will stand in their way.
Because, in the end, that's what thugs do anyway. They ultimately fall into pieces and fight amongst themselves.