We're a couple of hours into the trading day, and it is election day in Massachusetts. Reports continue to come in that there are almost no signs visible for Coakely (except for the ones illegally placed too close to polling places), and little enthusiasm among Coakley supporters. Reports also continue to come in about wild enthusiasm and optimism among Brown supporters.
Lots of news websites are carrying stories about Democrats pointing fingers of blame at one another for the Coakley loss--and the election isn't over and a single vote has yet to be counted. But the expectation across the board is so completely in favor of a Brown victory that if, by some chance, Coakley does manage to edge Brown out the big story will be of an upset victory by a Democrat running for Senate in Massachusetts.
Meanwhile, back on Wall Street, he Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are all up--rather strongly up. That is news for three reasons.
First, because markets in Asia and South America have been going down for the last two days, and Europe has been mixed and unsettled. Second, because the dollar has gone up today, and for the last year, U.S. stock markets have gone down whenever the dollar went up (and up whenever the dollar went down--long story, but investors have basically been profiting from America growing weaker). The third thing that is newsworthy about the U.S. stock market gains today, however, is that the sector leading the advance is...
...get ready for it.
...you know what it is.
...it's the health care sector!
Yes. On a day when all indications are that Scott Brown is going to be elected the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, effectively killing Obamacare, the health care industry is gaining in value and looking stronger, not weaker. What a tremendous surprise that is.
Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money, originally an Obama supporter (who jumped ship when he saw how disastrous the Obama administration policies were for the nation), has predicted that if Brown is elected there will be a very large stock market rally. It looks like the rally is starting today, just based on the expectation of a Brown victory that will reign in Obama, Pelosi and Reid.
For reason's that I've discussed previously, our country is still in serious economic trouble, but I will be a lot more positive about our ability to get through the troubles coming later this spring and summer if Brown wins. I am anxiously waiting for the results tonight.
The message of the markets so far seems clear: What is bad for the Democrats is good for America and Americans. With a Democrat loss seeming expected today, the stock markets are up, the dollar is up, and oil prices are down. That is a simple, direct message that could figure profitably in a lot of campaign ads this election cycle.
Watch what happens tomorrow depending on the outcome of the Massachusetts election and the margin of final victory.