Tipping Point: The Lynch Nomination Will Set The Trajectory
Victory feeds on itself. Similarly, defeat feeds on itself. When we broke up the “bipartisan” health care negotiations in the spring of 2009 — when we killed every word of Obama gun control — when we “blue slipped” amnesty legislation — we created a reverse-momentum that stymied Obama and changed history. Conversely, when the GOP leadership caved on the Cromnibus — when Mike Pence soiled his diapers — when the administration hatched a deal with Iran which it now claims is impervious to congressional oversight or reversal — Obama shifted the momentum. Now comes Loretta Lynch.
By the end of the month, either Obama or the GOP will have seized the reins of the horse. And the good news is that the Senate GOP will determine who wins. And the bad news is that the Senate GOP will determine who wins.
But make no mistake about it: Lynch has FIVE high hurdles before she can permanently move into the cavernous fifth floor offices at DoJ. And five Republican senators — Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) 44%, Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) 17%, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 44%, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) 68%, and Sue Collins (two of whom are committee chairmen or leadership) — will all, unanimously, have to vote to betray their colleagues and supporters at least four times before she can seize the brass ring:
ONE: The Senate will be required to move to proceed to Lynch. And, in order to do this, Republicans will probably have to cave on abortion (on the sex trafficking bill).
TWO: Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) 14% will have to get sixteen signatures on a petition to shut off a Republican filibuster. (Hopefully, no Republican will be dumb enough to sign this.) Reid will then have to usurp Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 58%‘s prerogative to file a petition which McConnell opposes and thus thereby seize control of the Senate floor.
THREE: All senators will have to vote on whether to support Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) 14%
‘s petition to shut off a filibuster supported by almost all Republicans.
FOURTH: Senators will have to vote on an appeal to the ruling of the chair on whether to embrace, approvingly, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) 14%‘s nuclear option for the sole purpose of defeating the Republican majority — or whether to follow the black-letter rules of the Senate, which require 60 votes to cloture Lynch.
FIFTH: Only if she clears the previous hurdles will Lynch receive the confirmation vote that everyone is anticipating. Thus, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) 44%, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) 68%, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 44%, etc., will not have the luxury of sticking a quick knife-in-the-back for conservatives, their constituents, the NRA, and their colleagues. Rather, for Lynch to prevail, they will have to thrust the knife again and again and again — Charles Manson-style. And they will have to do this on behalf of Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) 14%, Barack Obama, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) 16%, who are already (prematurely) doing a victory dance based on their emasculation of GOP Republicans and Leader McConnell.
Oh, one more thing: I find it easier to forgive those I defeat than to forgive those who defeat me. But, if Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) 17% ends up casting the deciding vote to give Obama the humiliating defeat of the gun lobby which he has long coveted, don’t be surprised if groups such as mine make Kirk’s defeat in 2016 their number one priority, irrespective of the consequences. As Scott Brown found out in New Hampshire in 2014, you can prostitute yourself to the Left all you want, but, if your base flees, you lose.