I would like to put, in very clear terms, an absolute indicator of the end od the recession and the start of the American prosperity.
I call it the "JoS. A Banks" Indicator.
It is simple to understand.
Observations leading to this indicator.
When we were in the most recent economic growth cycle (accepted as the middle years of President Clinton), the company "JoS. A Banks" was happily advertising a free shirt with every suit they sold. Maybe a tie, but no great incentives.
Then the down turn years came, and JoS. A Banks started adding extra shirts, maybe a an second pair of pants. But still no real panic.
Then we start the "Hard Times" for the economy. Business is "Failing", being taken over by the Government, Banks going under, loans defaulting, the Stoc Markets plummeting, and even Government issued bonds dropping in value.
These all lead to one simple result.
Bankers, Brokers and Management personnel are taking a BIG hit. Losing jobs, bonuses, and salary cuts directly affects their buying power, and their hiring power.
With these people being hit, and in many cases Hit Hard, we expect that their buying habits are also hit hard.
And so we see JoS. A Banks taking much more drastic measures. In the last one and a half years, JoS. A. Banks has been sweeting the pot. Roughly following the following:
1 - buy a suit and get free shirts and pants
2 - buy a suit and get a second suit for free
3 - buy a suit and get any second suit for free
4 - buy a suit and get any two suits for free
Now we have hit the latest push,
Buy a suit and get any two suits and a Tuxedo for free
Anyway, we have all types of markers and experts readings on the economy. Some good, some bad.
But I believe that you will absolutely know when the economy has turned the corner, only when JoS. A. Banks goes back to "Buy a suit and get a shirt for free".
At this point the Bankers, Brokers and Business executives will be back "In the Pink".
They will be happy, They will be hiring.
People will be working and JoS. A. Banks will once again be making a profit.