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White House predicts 3.5% growth by year’s end.

I am sure that they *mean* well.

The White House is promising solid economic growth by the end of this year:

White House Sees 3.5% Growth by Year-End, Exceeding Forecasts

May 11 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration projected that the U.S. economy will expand at a 3.5 percent annual rate by year-end, a rebound that would be almost twice as strong as private forecasters expect.

[snip]

As early as the end of this year, GDP may rise at a 3.5 percent annual rate, the same pace projected for all of next year, helped by a $787 billion stimulus package, the administration said in the report today. That’s more optimistic than the 1.8 percent fourth-quarter growth estimate in the monthly Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey released May 10.

Of course, this White House promised ‘only’ a $1.2 trillion dollar deficit this year; it’s now going to be $1.8 trillion, and probably rising. And it calculated an 8.1% unemployment rate for 2009 (last month’s was 8.9%, thanks largely to government seasonal work*). And then there’s this (via here):

stimulus-vs-unemployment-april

Let me explain really quickly what that graph means. The solid blue line represents what the incoming Obama economic team calculated would be the unemployment rate if the ‘stimulus’ was passed; the light blue line represents the unemployment rate if the ‘stimulus’ was not passed. We passed the ‘stimulus’. The red triangles represent the actual unemployment rates for March and April.  As you can see, passing the stimulus has so far had no effect on the unemployment rate.  So you can believe the administration’s current predictions of economic growth by year-end all you like. Or you could start assessing your options.

Hey, take your time.

Moe Lane

*Census.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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