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Thoughts on the SC primary.

As mentioned earlier, I was kind of taking last night off, so this will be a little scatter-shot.  Anyway:

  • Heh.  Called it.  Not that getting the order was all that hard, or even unsurprising; also note that I didn’t predict the percentages.  By the way:  the end results (Gingrich 40%, Romney 28%, Santorum 17%, Paul 13%) were pretty close to what PPP predicted (Gingrich 37%, Romney 28%, Santorum 16%, Paul 14%).
  • Sean Trende over at RCP has done a pretty good job explaining just how bad this night was for Mitt Romney.
  • I predict that we’ve heard the last of any suggestion, by the way, that Romney will skipping most or all of the remaining debates.
  • Most importantly: none of this suggests that Newt Gingrich is now the inevitable nominee.  Just that Romney isn’t actually inevitable.  But it’s going to be one of those two.
  • Florida is going to be epic next week.  Nine days of (metaphorical) knife fights in alleys, because there’s some people out there who are scared for the first time in this campaign cycle.  Hope everyone else is prepared for that, because it’s going to happen anyway.
  • Looking further at the schedule… Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan’s caucuses/primaries look like the results will be binding; Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota’s technically will not. Don’t expect that to be reported in the media.
  • If Romney doesn’t start winning primaries, the Super Tuesday narrative will have a disproportionate amount of space dedicated to the minor detail that the frontrunner is not on the ballot in Virginia. Fallout from that: if Romney wins the nomination then Bob McDonnell will not be his Vice Presidential pick.
  • Last but not least: if the Gingrich campaign is wondering what to send RedState in the way of a gift basket, I personally like those chocolate praline stick things.  Although, honestly, I didn’t do the heavy lifting on this one.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

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