One of the early arguments against Doug Hoffman's campaign was that he would serve as a spoiler and ruin the chances of the GOP from retaining this Congressional seat. That's one of the big arguments that Dede Scozzafava and her establishment supporters are still using against Hoffman. Recent polling data shows that not to be the case.
Hoffman has held his own and improved his standing in the past two weeks amongst every single group of voters and is currently leading amongst independent voters and the support of 27% of Republican voters. This is the case as Hoffman remains the least recognized of the three candidates. As he continues to build his campaign, increase the number of campaign offices, and begin to advertise on TV - Hoffman's name recognition will increase and his support base will only improve.
This begs the question - who's really the spoiler. Hoffman has been boosting his name recognition, strengthening his ground game, and is leading amongst Independent voters. Thursday will show if his fundraising prowess is better than Scozzafava's - but insiders indicate that Scozzafava's fundraising has been weak at best. Scozzafava has been losing steam and losing support amongst voters as they continue to get to know her. Her unfavorables went up 12% in the past two weeks and 28% of voters feel that after viewing Scozzafava commercials they are less likely to vote for her, that's over a quarter of the electorate feeling less inclined to vote for her based on her ads.
So, who is spoiling this race for whom? Both Scozzafava and Hoffman would caucus with the GOP in Congress and currently Hoffman has the most momentum, which was acknowledged by the independent pollster to be even greater than the Democratic candidate's. With Scozzafava's approval and polling numbers dropping, it appears that Scozzafava may be spoiler, not Hoffman.
Cross posted at Old Line Elephant