Its been almost a year since the "Green Revolution" protests occurred in Iran. I had only started my blog for a couple of months and I decided to do some prognostication about what would happen in Iran. Unlike some, I was more cynical as to the ultimate outcome. In fact, I said any attempt to overthrow the Mullahs would fail. I was right. But, in the finest tradition of the Navy, you don't point out a problem without suggesting a solution. So, with the Obama Administration announcing some more "toothless" sanctions against Iran and trying to convince everyone they have accomplished something, I present to you my piece from almost a year ago. I must admit, I was spot on as to the outcome of the protests and the reaction to the Obama Administration... All I ask is for you to give my rather unique (and simple!) solution to the Iranian problem a read and think about it... Comments welcome!
What does the failure of the Iranian Green Revolution mean to U.S. Interests?
1. Iran will continue unabated towards achieving its goal of Nuclear weapons. This would have continued under Mousavi anyway, so it's a wash as far as weapons development. What is apparent is there will be no Obama style "unclenching of the fist " by Iran. Couple that with Ahmadinejad's recent public, personal slap down of Obama and the slowness/reluctance to criticize the Iranian Islamic fascists by the administration and the result is that the Whitehouse and Hillary at Foggy Bottom have, within six months, projected an image of utter impotence of American power. This has not only ramifications in the Middle East, but also worldwide. The current administration has become a laughing stock. In foreign policy and statecraft, there are two essential traits that a power must command from others: Respect and/or Fear. Wanting to be liked is naive.
2. Iran will ramp up its efforts in Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza. They need to get the spotlight off of them ASAP (Admittedly , with the U.S. Press, Michael Jackson has done that, but soon he will be six feet under and the press will move on) and the best way is to have their surrogates start making trouble. Already, we are seeing spikes in attacks in Iraq as the U.S. departs cities, some attacks happening within hours of the U.S. leaving the area. As for Hezbollah and Hamas, their puppet masters in Iran will encourage them to start making trouble for Israel. This is to keep Israel occupied locally, incite Muslim anger towards Israel and make it more difficult for Bibi Netanyahu to take action against the Iranian Bomb. My humble opinion is that the Israel doesn't have the assets to stop Iran anyway and would not get the green light or support from the Obama administration even if they could do something.
3. Unless The Obama Administration is playing "possum", expect Iran to have a working Nuclear Device within 24-36 months, if not sooner. Despite saying a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable, the Obama administration will roll over and adjust to the new reality. What will be interesting will be the administration's reaction when, as soon as Iran goes Nuke, Israel comes clean on their Nuclear arsenal. I bet Israel will get the short end of the stick as far as administration rhetoric goes. It appears this administration has a deep-seated bias against Israel and I wouldn't be surprised if the Whitehouse condemns Israel in harsher tones than Iran once the Nuke Dragon rears its head in the Middle East. I predict Israel will adopt the only successful Nuclear Defense ever achieved by Mankind... Cold War style Mutually-Assured-Destruction (aka MAD). They will tell the Islamic world that if Israel goes hit with a Nuke, everyone gets hit...Tehran, Mecca, Riyadh, Damascus, Lebanon..the whole she-bang. This puts all parties on the hook and having a vested interest to keep Iran at bay. Bottom Line: Once Iran gets the Bomb and Israel unsheathes the true extent of its armory, Katie bar the door... We will have a full blown Nuclear Arms race in the Middle East. Congrats Obama: It will happen on your watch.
4. Don't expect the Iranian regime to fall anytime soon. Unless we (the good ole U.S.A) take an active role in undermining the Thugocracy in Iran...Expect the current regime to ride out the next 5-10 years relatively revolt free. Hell, it could be 20 years before another serious attempt is made to overthrow the Mullahs (that is, If it all doesn't vaporize into a radioactive cloud). Obama's actions in 2009 will gone down in infamy, along the same lines as the West's reactions when Hitler re-militarized the Rhineland in 1936.
What will the Obama Administrations response be?
1. Ineffectual Blather. That's pretty much sums that up... On to the next topic...
What should the U.S. response be? Here is my official Bloggy Bayou Plan of action:
1. Regime Change in Iran. There is no #2. Let's face it, there is no will in the American people to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iranian Nuke facilities. It will play into the Mullah's hands and harden the Thugocracy's hold on power. Sooner or later, the Mullahs will have to loosen their grip on everyday life or else face more riots. They will follow the Chinese post-Tienanmen square example of jailing leading agitators (executions?), clamp down on the universities and then slowly loosen restrictions on commerce and communications. As long as the populace remains docile, information (cell phones/Internet) and press restrictions will ease. First sign of unrest, the mullahs will clamp down again and maybe some more executions. It worked in China and it will work in Iran. Why? Monopoly of force.
The only real solution is to return to our American Roots as a the most successful example revolutionary action in the History of mankind. We need only a two-prong effort:
a. First Prong: Information: We actively fund exiled Iranian communication assets and have them start agitating for a "Mullah-free, Secular State". (Mousavi is toast and good riddance as far as I'm concerned. ) There are already Farsi language stations in the West who revile the Thugocracy and would gladly participate in our propaganda effort. Yes, you heard it Right ... Propaganda... We Americans are the greatest communicators in the world. We were the masters of overt propaganda during WWII. Post-war we swept the world with our ideas, customs and culture and we did it without even trying. We are talking blue jeans and Elvis baby. This time we will do it 21st century style and make it go viral. Hire top tier producers, technicians and Techno- geeks, introduce them to the Iranian Exile groups and before you know it, you will have every under 30 year old Persian in the world bopping to the freedom beat courtesy of the You Tube/Internet/smuggled DVD's and satellite comms. Crazy Hip-hop with a Farsi swing, hep-cats and all that jazz.... Fine tune it towards those Gorgeous Persian Chicks, let them know that they have GRRRRRRRRL Power, turn them loose and make 'em love it... "Whiskey, sexy, freedom!".
b. Second Prong: 9mm pistols: This one is going to REALLY piss off the Mullahs and the Obama/Pelosi wing of the party. But truly brilliant ideas are usually the simplest. We dump a couple of Billion Dollars into our own firearms manufacturers (Colt/S&W/Ruger, Berretta USA, etc) and we have them mass produce the equivalent of a standard issue 9mm as well as a small concealed 9mm version. We then dump another billion or so in 9mm ammunition and spare clips. And here is the kicker, we stamp every single piece of hardware; Bullets, gun frames, barrels, clips: "MADE IN THE USA" and then proceed to smuggle/dump them into Iran. We start arming the Non-Persian Minorities and the more radical urbanites. We make them faster than they can confiscate them. We float Iran in a sea of 9mm small arms. We give the middle finger to Ahmadinejad and his merry band of Fascists and tell the opposition to keep the weapons oiled and powder dry. We don't deny doing it, we revel in it. We embrace it. We call it what it is: Standing up for the little guy. The result will be the breaking of the monopoly of force of the Thugocracy. Armed marchers are a lot harder to break up than non-armed. Within a year, 18 months tops, you would have an armed under 30 populace that would, quite simply, out gun the opposition by sheer weight of numbers and small arms. The great thing about just issuing pistols, is that they really don't pose a threat to other countries but they sure as hell make a million man riot interesting. I know, I know, the left in America will say "Iran will retaliate in Iraq with IEDs, support the radicals, etc". My answer is... They are already doing that and it's gonna escalate as we withdraw more troops. Iran is willing to export terror. We must be willing to export revolution. The only real hope for Iraq and the Middle East has for peace is regime change in Iran. An Iran more concerned about everyday life of its people, creating jobs and putting food on its table will be a lot less interested in funding Hezbollah and Hamas and threatening Israel. Neutralize Iran and you lower the political temperature by about 100 degrees in the Middle East. And when those student's and protesters stand astride their streets, free of the beatings and whippings of the Fascist Revolutionary Guard, they will look at that pistol in their hand and know who helped make it possible. The good Ole' USA. Then we corner the Iranian market on IPods, jeans and take-out pizza. Cause that's what we do....
So there you go. My personal plan for peace in the Middle East. 100% guaranteed to rock Iran to its core. Persian Rock and Roll, YouTube and 9mm Pistols, all rolled up into one big overpowering wave. It would work. America only needs the will to do it.
Yeah, it's a pipe dream now.... But who knows.. It may catch fire.
Ya gotta admit, I pretty much nailed it as far as what would happen... Just give the "9mm Solution" a chance!