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Two new Ohio polls show McCain ahead.

A breakdown of the two 9/12 polls.

As Adam mentioned, there are two new Ohio polls are out today. The Insider Advantage poll has McCain up 1, 48-47 and the StrategicVisionpoll has McCain up 4, 48-44.

Looking at the InsiderAdvantage poll, there seems to be a few noteworthy items:

  • First, it was 503 LV on 9/10, within the MOE.

  • Obama wins 18-29 by only 14 points, McCain wins 30-44 by 20 points, and Obama wins 45-64 by 8 points. If McCain can come within 14 points in the under 30 group, I would think he’ll win Ohio handsomely, as that was Bush’s MOV in that group in 2004. Bush did win the 45-59 group by 5 points, so there is potential for Obama to do well, but I don’t see it that he’d be up 8 in that category.

  • The African American and Hispanic breakdowns are either wrong or very strange. Obama is winning the AA vote by only 2-1 margin with only 71% accounted for in the poll. Obama is, however, shows as winning the Hispanic vote 88-9. That seems extremely high. For comparison, Bush received 16% of the AA vote and 35% of the Hispanic vote. I suspect an error, and that the numbers should be reversed.

  • The sampling seems weighted to Democrats too heavily, as McCain is winning 91% of GOP, 15% of Dems, and is up 51-34 among independents (17 points!!). If McCain wins independents by 17, I think he’ll cruise, as Bush lost independents by a 59-40 margin. That would be a 46 point swing. Also, in 2004, there were 40% GOP and 35% Dem (25% Independent), but how much that number has changed, now, I don’t know.

The StrategicVision breakdown below the fold:The StrategicVision poll breakdown:

  • 1200 LV Sept 7-9.

  • FAV/UNFAV rankings are Palin, then McCain, then Biden, then Obama (only 9%, 48-39)

  • McCain wins on handling the war and the Economy (49-43). If he wins the Economy question here in Ohio, I think he’ll win the election here.

  • Bush is not popular (over 50% only on the War on Terrorism – not Iraq, though), so this bodes well for the “Change” mantra from McCain and Palin. Bush’s 25% approval rating is double that of Congress’ though.

  • This is a GOP firm, I believe. In 2004, the final SV pollswere about 1% high for GOP for the upper Midwest battleground states, but Ohio was called correctly.

Makes yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll look all the more odd.

  • NDPhog

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