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NDPhog’s Ohio Poll Average

As a follow-up to my post about Ohio poll skews, I’ll update this diary (I assume that’s the best method, as opposed to making new posts each time) with every few Ohio polls released.

  • Average of polls used: Obama leads 49-45 with a partisan skew of D+5.  Romney wins Independents by 4 points.  No way that happens and he doesn’t win the state.  Realclearpolitics.com average of O+4.8 is laughable.
  • Using average of 2004-2010 skew of D+1.2: Obama leads 47-46
  • Using 2010 skew of R+1: Romney leads 47-46
  • Using 2006 skew of D+3: Obama leads 48 – 45.4

Polls used (note, I only include the last month’s worth and don’t use polls where I can’t ascertain the D,R,I breakdown):

  1. 9/19 FOX
  2. 9/13 NBC-WSJ-Marist
  3. 9/9 PPP
  4. 8/26 Columbus Dispatch
  5. 8/23 Ohio Poll

-NDPhog

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