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I looked at the various possibilities for Joe Miller’s win. If MIller wins 9000 votes in the absentee, questioned ballots and overseas votes which are going to be counted in following ways Miller can win without hassle.
Tuesday, 11/9 – Early votes from Election Day and Absentee ballots – gone already
Friday, 11/12 – Questioned ballots
Monday, 11/15 – Absentee and/or questioned ballots
Tuesday, 11/16 – Absentee and/or questioned ballots
Wednesday, 11/17 – Special Advance (overseas) ballots
I wish somebody can give a rough estimate number of would be ballots in the questioned, absentee and overseas ballots over all. I would call them QAO votes for this diary entry.
These are the current numbers from Alaksa Elections web site.
Total Votes 83113
Write in Vote count
Lisa Murkowski 74449 89.58%
Murkowski (CC) 6574 7.91%
Murkowski (CNC) 1559 1.88%
Other – Misc. Names 473 0.57%
Write-In Miller, Joe 5 0.01%
Write-In McAdams 5 0.01%
Miller, Joe REP 87517
Write-in Votes 98565
15252 write in ballots are yet to be counted.
With the current clean vote scenario for Lisa M. she would be winning 90% of the write in votes. That would be 88709. So Lisa M. would lead by 1192. So Miller needs 1192 QAO votes at the minimum if courts decide in his favor.
With current challenged counted scenario Lisa M. is winning 97.49% of the write in votes. In that scenario it would be 96091 votes for Lisa M. So Miller needs 8575 votes at the minimum.
In the best case Scenario Lisa M. would have 96275 votes cast for her.
clean + challenged but counted + yet to be counted
74449 + 6574 = 81023 + 15252 = 96275. Only 183 votes vary in approximation of 96091.
If courts throw out challenged but counted votes the tally would be 89071 at the best or 88709. i.e. 360 votes variation in approximation.
If courts throw out challenged votes, Lisa M. tally would be 89071 votes and then Miller needs = 89071 – 87517 i.e 1554 votes from the QAO pool.
Millers needs 8663 votes to win without courts’ intervention from questioned, Absentee and Overseas votes at the minimum. Lisa M. would be getting some write in ballots from that pool too.
My question for my buddies what is the number of votes in the absentee, questioned and overseas pool.