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My May 2011 WAG — Obama’s odds better with Huckabee and Daniels out of the race

DISCLAIMER

I was a Daniels supporter until he dropped out.  Now, I’m leaning heavily towards Pawlenty.

LAST MONTH’S NUMBERS:

Individuals:
Obama 46% (but the only DEM)
Pawlenty 9%
Romney 8.25
Huckabee 7%
Barbour 5.5%
Bachmann 4.5%
Palin 4%
Daniels 3.25%
Guiliani 3.00%
Huntsman 2.75%
Cain 2.5%
Trump 2.25%
Gingrich 2.0%

NOW TO MAY:

METHODOLOGY
1) Estimate the chances of a certain candidate to win the GOP primary
2) Estimate the chances of that person to win the general against Obama
3) Do the multiplication to get each individual Republican’s chances of winning
4) Do the subtraction and addition to compute a Democratic president vs Republican president

GOP PRIMARY — Chances to win

Pawlenty, Romney — 20% (best organizations)

Palin, Huntsman  — 15% (Palin is Palin, Huntsman has the media on his side)
Gingrich, Cain  — 10% Really running and have some things to say, but also have baggage
Bachmann,  Guiliani — 5% (very long shots)

Yep … that’s how I see the GOP race …Romney and Pawlenty have the edge so far.

CHANCES IN THE GENERAL(These are the same as previously):
Romney vs Obama — 55% (would be 60% if not for RomneyCare)
Pawlenty vs Obama — 60% (the anti-obama)
Palin vs Obama — 40% (I know a lot of conservatives who won’t vote for her)
Bachman vs Obama — 45% (house member, lots of brash stuff out there to paint her as crazy)
Huntsman vs Obama — 55% (loses 5% for involvement in Obama cabinet)
Gingrich vs Obama — 40% (still are a lot of people with a negative opinion about Newt plus the soc-cons aren’t exactly going to rally to his side (wifes 1 to 3) … total squish on global warming as well)
Cain vs Obama — 50% (the lack of political experience will hurt him more than his executive experience will help him)
Guiliani vs Obama — 60% (I think Da Mayor will play well against Obama)

RESULTS
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 54%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 48.5%

Individuals:
Obama 48.5% (but the only DEM)  Up by 2.5% from previous diary
Pawlenty 12%
Romney 11%
Huntsman 8.25%

Palin 6%
Cain 5%
Gingrich 4%

Guiliani 3.00%

Bachmann 2.25%

CHANGES

Daniels and Huckabee dropping out helps Obama’s chances of re-election because they were two of the Republicans who had the best chance to beat him.  It’s not saying that these others can’t, it’s just saying that Huckabee would have been a formidable challenge in the general if he survived the primary.

Newt had an amazing performance on economic issues over on CNBC.  By far the best, I’ve seen from any candidate (and he is low on my list).  Not a fan of Newt, but I was impressed:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000023703

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