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Guarded optimism

A path to victory

Okay, so between the late breaking coal scandal and McCain’s momentum, this could pan out. On Rasmussenreports.com, the most reliable pollster for my money, McCain has a lock on 160 electoral votes, while Obama is locked on 260. Now, 21 of those 260 were PA, which dipped down to a 3-4 point lead this week, came up to 6, and has not been polled since the coal scandal broke. Lets not assume, therefore, Obama gets PA.

If we assume McCain wins each state he is winning or within 1 on, (very reasonable assumption), then its McCain 247,Obama 239.

That leaves several paths to victory if McCain wins:

  1. PA and NV
  2. PA and VA
  3. PA and NH
  4. PA and CO
  5. VA and CO
  6. VA and NV and NH
  7. Surprise from MN or IA adds more possible combinations

Can we pull this off? Yes we can.

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