How Lichtman cooks his own books.
For those who didnt happen to catch this little jewel, American University professor Allan Lichtman who “accurately” predicted past presidential elections is now calling the 2012 election for President Obama.
To understand how Lichtman makes his predictions, you must understand there are “13 keys” to winning an election. Of those, he says, the winner must take at least six. According to the professor Obama wins nine. Yes, you read that correctly, nine.
Before anyone decides to pack it in lets review those 13 keys and see if there is any real truth in the end analysis.
“Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Obama loses this key.”
Captain obvious. Republicans, if they continue to listen to the American public and do what they were elected to do and be smart in the pocess, may very well gain seats.
“Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination Obama wins this key.”
Although we’ve heard rumblings about up to twenty five percent of Democrats not wanting to vote for President Obama, I will concede thise point because there is no official challenge. Even Bush 41 had an early challenger.
“Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.”
Okay, yes. Once again pretty straight forward. I could argue, however, that incumbency may not be a benefit. It certainly was not for many Democrats and Republicans in 2010. People felt that government was out of control and trying to take over their lives. Many still feel that way, which will be discussed later down the line, which may mean that incumbency could be a bad thing. To the point, President Obama is trying to run as a sort of outsider if you can believe it.
“Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.”
Agreed here. In fact, if you look at polls I would say Republicans could still lose by five to seven percent breaking off and voting Libertarian. Say what you want, but you can only talk down someone for so long without the dirt sticking. Early polls with Romney and Perry neck and neck with Obama show third party doing decent enough to hurt and given President Obama the win.
“Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign…” “Undecided.”
This is where it gets fishy. One percent growth with over nine percent unemployment isnt bursting at the seems. Infact it is dismal on the border of a recession. Most people feel as if we never left the recession. Back in 1992 the recession ended before November, but because people felt we were doing badly, they voted the economy. So President Obama loses this key.
“Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.”
This is Lichtman puts on his cheerleader outfit. Yes, President Obama got his policy change. However it precipitated the historic creation of the TEA party movement. Whats more, the vast majority of people still want Obamacare repealed and the budget balanced. These are two things President Obama refuses to do. So yes, there was a change in national policy – but it was a net negagive. Obama loses.
“Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.” “Obama wins a fifth key here.”
Is this guy blind? Did Lichtman miss the townhall debates over the past two years and the absolute shellacking recieved by Democrats in November of 2011 in addition to the creation of the TEA party movement? There is no way Obama wins this key. He loses it by a mile.
“Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.” “Another Obama win.”
At this point Lichtman is shaking his pom-poms fast and furiously. Pun intended. There have been several “scandals” the Obama administration is going through including Operation Fast and Furious and the Black Pather voter intimidation cases. That says nothing about the czar appointments or throttling of Chrysler share holders during the auto bail outs. Operation Fast and Furious is the more damning of all the scandals. While Lichtman isnt aware of the scandal, most people I talk to are. Obama loses.
“Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.” “Obama wins again.”
So I am guessing people see Libya as successful? You know the military action which President Obama failed to get Congressional approval before taking. While a new poll suggests 54 percent of Americans support the action, up from 35 percent last month, President Obama failed to recieve any sort of bounce. No, we havent had a C-130 crash in the dessert trying to rescue Americans held hostage – but you cannot say Obama is seen as strong and decisive.
One should remember the problem created by the Obama administration by back-stabbing our current allies such as the United Kingdom or Isreal while giving tyrant states like Iran and Syria pretty much a free hand.
The jury is still out on this key.
“Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.” “Obama wins his eighth key.”
Lichtman tries to cite Osama Bin-Laden’s death as the sole reason for foriegn success. What the professor does not do, however, is view the entire policy. When President Obama said he wanted to lead from behind, he apparently meant it. While Americans are burned out from nation building, we certainly do not feel like letting other countries dictate to us what our best interest are. Obama failes on this key miserably.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. ” “Obama loses this key”
I agree with this. President Obama is not seen as a type of hero to the average American. He does not inspire optimism in our future or propose bold plans which include Americans doing what we do best. Instead we are being fed a steady stream of washington-knows-it-all bran. Bleh.
“Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t” bama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.”
I left the quote in full to make a point about how this man is cooking his own books for what ever reason. Obviously this man has not seen Herman Cain or Governor Rick Perry. (Full Disclosure, I support and have donated to Rick Perry – you should too)
Both men are inspiring and offer incredible records. Both are national heros of sorts, especially when it comes to the economy and knowing how to put Americans back to work without policy which leaches off tax payer dollars.
After reviewing Lichtman keys we can see President Obama wins three keys with one more up in the air.