Random Thoughts About the 2012 Nomination Process
There have been many false narratives promoted throughout this primary season by the establishment elites, and also by the pundits and national media. The reason for these false narratives have varied. The first one was the “inevitability” of Romney winning the nomination. This narrative was promoted by establishment elites in order to clear the field and discourage people from entering the contest. The liberal national media wanted the contest over quickly to give Obama extra time to smear the nominee. Inevitability can’t begin to be considered until a candidate begins winning at least 50% in the polls, and none of the candidates have done this.
Another false narrative promoted is that the contest is between Romney and the non-Romneys. This narrative is linked to the first one in order to promote the inevitability of Romney. Now some of the punditry are promoting the narrative that the contest is between Gingrich and the non-Gingrich. In my opinion these narratives are both phony.
There is a false narrative that the candidates who have dropped out of the contest have only themselves to blame. I think they are only partly to blame. The punditry talking points are similar to the American Idol judges’ critiques in that their opinion influences those who text in their votes. If you like and have respect for the opinion pundits or judges, then you tend to follow their lead. It also means you are less likely to vote for those receiving a bad critique.
Some think the debates have been a wonderful way for the voters to pick the candidate to support. I disagree, and my disagreement is not with the concept but with the way they’re structured. The RNC Chair set up these contracts with the liberals at ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and FOX to run these debates and it has given the liberals the power to have the Republican candidates look petty and silly. We conservatives are to blame for not filling up the empty PC slots with like-minded conservatives to get an RNC Chairman elected who cares less about making himself look good to the media, and more about improving the image of the Republican Party in the eyes of Americans. I’m not criticizing the ability of Priebus to articulate conservatism, but I am criticizing him for the deals he has made with the liberal media – they are not helping the Republican brand. All of the Republican debates should have been on C-SPAN with conservative moderators like Mark Levin, Michael Reagan, Fred Thompson etc. It is difficult for good people to subject themselves to the abuse of running for office when the RNC surrenders moderation and control of debates to the liberals.
One recent meme is that the base of the Republican Party simply does not like Mitt Romney. This one makes me laugh. “Like” is such a social network Facebook kind of word. Voters are looking to identify who they think is the best person for the job of president. The ability to articulate is so much more important a factor than the “like” factor. George Will recently put it this way:
But if Romney says even one more time “I believe in America” – a bromide worthy of Tom (“Your future is still ahead of you”) Dewey – voters may decide there is no there there.
The last observation I have about this 2012 nomination process is that I do not understand how the primary calendar is decided. If it was decided to reward on the basis of the outcome of a state in the previous Presidential election, then Oklahoma should have been the first primary state in 2012. Oklahoma is the only state that Obama did not win a single county. The rules for the elections in Oklahoma are different than any other state. Oklahoma Registration Deadline: 25 days before the election. Only voters who are registered members of a recognized political party may vote for the party’s candidates in primary and runoff primary elections. You cannot change your political affiliation “from June 1 through August 31, inclusive, in any even-numbered year.” Voter ID cards won’t be issued during the 24 days prior to an election. A party is defined either as a group that polled 10% for the office at the top of the ticket in the last election (i.e., president or governor), or who submits a petition signed by voters equal to 5% of the last vote cast for the office at the top of the ticket. An independent presidential candidate, or the presidential candidate of an unqualified party, may get on the ballot with a petition of 3% of the last presidential vote. Oklahoma is the only state in the nation in which an independent presidential candidate, or the presidential candidate of a new or previously unqualified party, needs support from more than 2% of the last vote cast to get on the ballot. State law prohibits the state from accepting a candidate’s candidacy if the $2,500 cashiers check and the declaration of candidacy are not submitted together. Oklahoma operates as a winner-take-all system if a candidate achieves a majority of the vote (i.e. over 50% of the vote). However, it is a modified winner-take-all system because the delegates are allocated proportionally if no candidate breaches the majority vote threshold. Stated another way, in a modified winner-take-all system the at large delegates are allocated proportionally based on a 15% threshold; however, they are allocated on a winner-take-all basis if a candidate achieves over 50% of the vote.
Cross-posted at Unified Patriots