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The Race For The Remaining Delegates

Below is a list of the remaining contests in chronological order, and the number of delegates remaining. Everyone needs to remove their rose-colored glasses, and that includes the supporters of Mitt Romney. Nothing is guaranteed, but there are some scenarios that are more likely than others. I agree with the political pundits like Dick Morris that it will not be in the best interests of the Republican Party to not have a nominee until September. I also believe we will know who our nominee is in July, but there are different scenarios that should be considered.

  • Kansas = 40
  • Guam = 9
  • Virgin Islands = 9
  • Northern Marianas = 9
  • Alabama = 50
  • American Samoa = 9
  • Hawaii = 20
  • Mississippi = 40
  • Puerto Rico = 23
  • Illinois = 69
  • Louisiana = 46
  • Washington DC = 19
  • Maryland = 37
  • Wisconsin = 42
  • Connecticut = 28
  • Delaware = 17
  • Rhode Island = 19
  • New York = 95
  • Pennsylvania = 72
  • Indiana = 46
  • North Carolina = 55
  • West Virginia = 31
  • Oregon = 28
  • Nebraska = 35
  • Arkansas = 36
  • Kentucky = 45
  • Texas = 155
  • California = 172
  • Montana = 26
  • New Mexico = 23
  • South Dakota = 28
  • New Jersey = 50
  • Utah = 40
  • Total remaining delegates = 1423

One interesting tidbit is how the Republican establishment has padded extra delegates into the five US federal territories. None of these 5 territories have any electoral college delegates, but they add up to 59 RNC delegates. Below you’ll find several different scenarios that I consider unlikely or likely to various degrees.

Mitt Romney wins 55% of the contests remaining = >1144 UNLIKELY
Rick Santorum wins 72% of the contests remaining = >1144 VERY UNLIKELY
Newt Gingrich wins 75% of the contests remaining = >1144 HIGHLY UNLIKELY
Ron Paul wins 78% of the contests remaining = >1144 EXTREMELY UNLIKELY

Romney wins 40% of the contests remaining and is 200 delegates short of the 1144 HIGHLY LIKELY
Ron Paul deals Mitt Romney his delegates to eclipse 1144 LIKELY
Newt Gingrich deals Rick Santorum his delegates to eclipse 1144 POSSIBLE

Anyone who has “inevitable” coming out of his mouth simply refuses to remove their rose-colored glasses. I do not pretend to be a great political analyst, and I am humbled by those who appreciate my thoughts on these matters.

Cross-posted at Unified Patriots

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