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Four Scenarios for the 2012 Presidential Contest

Cross-posted at Unified Patriots

In the next five months a lot of things may happen that have an impact on who wins the presidential contest. We’ve already seen biased analysis by political pundits with their own agenda of either striving for attention or scaring folks. I am not a political pundit, and the only reason I have for writing this piece is to provide a sane and reasonable perspective of the presidential contest. I do believe I am informed with respect to election trends recently and also over the last 20 years. First I will list the states that I believe Obama and Romney have from the start.

    Obama starts with 205 electoral votes

  1. DC
  2. California
  3. Colorado
  4. Connecticut
  5. Delaware
  6. Hawaii
  7. Illinois
  8. Maine
  9. Maryland
  10. Massachusetts
  11. Minnesota
  12. New Jersey
  13. New York
  14. Oregon
  15. Rhode Island
  16. Vermont
  17. Washinngton
    Romney starts with 209 electoral votes

  1. Alabama
  2. Alaska
  3. Arizona
  4. Arkansas
  5. Georgia
  6. Idaho
  7. Indiana
  8. Kansas
  9. Kentucky
  10. Louisiana
  11. Mississippi
  12. Montana
  13. Nebraska
  14. North Carolina
  15. North Dakota
  16. Oklahoma
  17. South Carolina
  18. South Dakota
  19. Tennessee
  20. Texas
  21. Utah
  22. Virginia
  23. West Virginia
  24. Wyoming
    Romney needs 61 and Obama needs 65 of these 124 electoral votes

  1. Florida
  2. Iowa
  3. Michigan
  4. Missouri
  5. Nevada
  6. New Hampshire
  7. New Mexico
  8. Ohio
  9. Pennsylvania
  10. Wisconsin

Scenario 1

    Romney gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Missouri
  3. New Hampshire
  4. Ohio

Scenario 2

    Obama gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Michigan
  3. Nevada
  4. New Hampshire
  5. Wisconsin

Scenario 3

    It’s a 269-269 tie if Romney only wins these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Iowa
  3. Missouri
  4. New Mexico
  5. Wisconsin

Scenario 4

    Romney wins in 1980 Reagan-like fashion if Obama only wins in these states

  1. DC
  2. California
  3. Delaware
  4. Hawaii
  5. Illinois
  6. Maryland
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. Vermont

God only knows what will be the final outcome of the 2012 presidential contest. I hope my assumptions about the District of Columbia and 16 states for Obama and the 24 states for Romney are not considered far-fetched. I also hope my assumption regarding the 10 toss-up states is fair. The states in Obama’s column have voted more than 50% of the time in the last 20 years for the Democrat nominee for president. Included in the Romney column are the three states that in 2008 Obama received just over 50% of the vote – Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. Missouri is the only one of the 10 toss-up states where Obama received slightly under 50% of the vote, and over the last 20 years Missouri has voted just over 50% of the time for the Democrat nominee.

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