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Your very detailed whip count update — feel free to contribute with your local reports or voter tendancies in districts

Okay, latest breakdown.  I am cross comparing FireDogLake, The Hill and Jay Costs whip counts.  Here is what I have.  I have to commend FireDogLake though they are a liberal log.  Their spreadsheet is fantastic.  I have highlighted FDL’s figures and will now try to make heads or tails out of it all:

25 Democrats are firm no or very likely no: Boren, Boucher, Bright, Chandler, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Herseth-Sandlin, Holden, Kucinich (debatable), Kissell, Kratovil, Marshall, McMahon, Melancon, McIntyre, Minnick, Peterson, Ross, Shuler, Skelton, Taylor, Adler, Boyd, Dahlkamper, Donnelly, Driehaus, Lipinski, and Stupak.

Out of those 25, Boyd is debatable. Dahlkamper is in a R+3 district, Boyd is in a R+6 district. I would also put in here Chris Carney and Glenn Nye to that list. I move Kucinich to firm yes. I’ll put and Boyd as lean no. So I have 25 firm nos here with 1 leaning no and 1 firm yes. 

Potential No — Yes flips: 

Baird is in a neutral district. He’ll be a yes since he is retiring.
Barrow of Georgia is in a D+2 district. I would hate to have the stigma of a southern Democrat who voted for healthcare. He could go either way.
Boccieri is a suicide yes if what Clyburn is saying is true. He is in a R+4 district.

Travis Childers and Lincoln Davis are in this list? This would be ultimate suicide for Pelosi if both of these voted yes. They are both in R+14 districts. I have to think they will vote no. So for reality sake, I have them as no.

Gordon of TN is a yes in a R+13 district. He is retiring though but he might want to hunker down there in Tennessee.

Suzanne Kosmas is an Obama/Pelosi target. In a R+4 district, the marginalization of the space program by Obama can’t play well in Kosmas’s district. I have her as undecided.

Betsy Markey is in a R+9 district. She already hung herself with her cap and trade vote. A no on this healthcare vote could redeem herself. She could go either way, so undecided.

In Jim Matheson of Utah, you have to ask yourself: What kind of a moron would a congressmen in a R+15 district would take a bribe from a Marxist president and exchange his political career so his brother could have a federal judgeship? I have Matheson as undecided.

John Tanner is retiring. In a R+6 district, I have to think he might be leaning yes but he has made some negative comments in regards to the Senate bill. Undecided.

Harry Teague is in a R+6 district and has a very tough campaign ahead of him in that he’ll have to face Steve Pearce. I have him as a no out of this group for the time being per his latest comments highlighted at the Hill.

 

Summary: 3 switches to yes, 5 undecided, and three nos. 

Potential Yes-No flips 

Mike Arcuri is in a R+1 district.
His comments lately indicate strongly leaning no, but not quite a firm no.
Marion Berry puzzles me. His comments out there have been very negative lately but he voted to pass through the Budget committee markup. We probably shouldn’t read too much into this but then again, he might be playing the voters (R+8 district) for a patsy. Keep the calls up at his office. I have him as lean no.

Tim Bishop is in a neutral district. His comments at the committee meeting today indicate he might be leaning yes.

Henry Cuellar (neutral district) has done a big back pedal from his interview at Investor Business Daily. He was quite negative toward the Senate bill and seemed to be a no. However, his office has been not wanting to clarify his remarks. Undecided.

Mike Doyle is in a D+19 district. I have him as a yes.

Brad Ellsworth, R+9 district, wanting to get elected to the Senate seat vacated by Bayh, I have him as a no. Rumored to be in the Stupak coalition.

Gabrielle Giffords is in a R+4 district. She has been targeted with GOP robocalls and ads on televisions. There are recent runconfirmed eports that she will vote yes. If she does, she distinguishes herself as “I committed suicide for Pelosi and it didn’t do me any good.” category. Lean yes.

Baron Hill is in a R+6. Of all the Democrats, he is probably the one who is frightened the most. He wants to vote for this bill but wants his job too. Undecided.

Paul Kanjorski (D+4) I thought was a sure yes until the student loan program tacked on by Pelosi. If he voted for this, it would cost his district plenty of jobs. I put him at undecided with maybe a tiny bit of lean yes.

Marcy Kaptur (D+10) could be a pro-life sellout like Ben Nelson. I have her as yes. Ann Kirkpatrick is in a R+6 district. She would be well advised to redeem herself with voting no this time. Will she? Don’t know. Have her as lean yes.

Dan Maffei I don’t know much about except he is in a D+3 district. I’ll put him at lean yes just because he is in a lean Democrat district.

Jerry McNerney is in a R+1 district. I think he’ll vote yes and roll the dice in November.

Alan Mollohan of West Virginia is one we haven’t talked about much but one the GOP likely is targeting and we should target with our calls. He has a strong pro-life rating and is in a R+9 district. I have him as undecided but would probably vote no if pressured by his constituents.

Solomon Ortiz is in a R+2 district and could be one of those CHC congressmen who might vote no on this because of immigration. I have him at undecided but he could go no with the right kind of pressure.  Bill Owens is in a R+1 district that had voted GOP for decades. He duped voters by sounding negative toward the healthcare bill and then voted yea for it the first time around. Doug Hoffman is challenging him again in November. I still think he votes yes.

Earl Pomeroy is in R+10 land, is furious at Democrats for delaying so much on healthcare and jeopardizing his relection chances. If there was a politician that was motivated and feels rightly like he could redeem himself with a no vote, Pomeroy is that guy. I have him as lean no.

Zack Space is in a R+7 district but in the end, I think he votes yes.

Betty Sutton and Dina Titus are playing coy somewhat but I believe they will vote yea in the end. They are in D+2 and D+5 districts.

Summary: 1 Switch to No, 3 Lean No, 5 Undecided, 7 Lean yes, 5 stay Yes

Total Summary: 30 nos, 7 lean no, 10 undecided, 7 lean yes, 8 yes.

 

Total Whip count w/o leaners: 208 no, 199 yes.

Total Whip count w/leaners: 215 no, 206 yes. 10 undecided.

Not passing the bill still has an edge. But it still could go the other way. The X factor here that puts the bill’s passage in doubt is that the undecideds are in such perilous districts in regards to their careers. Keep that phone pressure heat turned up to inferno level.

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