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Target Lists for the 2010 House and Senate races and the 2012 Senate races

Here’s your 2010 and 2012 congressional race primer.  Feel free to share it with everyone you know.

Via Wikipedia and the Cook Partison Voting Index:  There are links in the Cook index that you can click on for the district in your area.

For a great write up on the 2010 House races, click here.

For the 2010 Senate races, click here.

For the 2012 Senate Democrat incumbents up for election, click here.

Targets of 2010 House Democratic Incumbents by congressional district.  Remember, just click on the Cook Partison Voting Index and click on the hyperlinks for your district or districts of interest in the state you live in:

Alabama: 2nd

Alaska:  At large (GOP hold, Young might have some problems with some legal trouble)

Arizona:  1st, 5th, and 8th.  The 7th is a secondary target.  D+6 district.

Arkansas:  1st, 2nd, and 4th.

California:  11th, 18th, 20th, and 47th.  I remind you that Costa and Cardoza (in 18 and 20) had their votes bought by Obama letting the water being turned on so farmers could water their crops in those districts.

Colorado:  3rd, 4th, and 7th.

Connecticut:  2nd, 4th, and 5th

Delaware:  At Large (Republican Mike Castle has vacated his seat and is running for Biden’s senate seat)

Florida:  2nd, 8th, 22nd, and 24th

Georgia:  2nd, 8th and 12th

Hawaii:  1st

Idaho:  1st

Illinois:  8th, 10th (incumbent GOP member is in a D+6 district), 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th.  Illinois is interesting.  A lot of fluidity in those districts.

Indiana:  1st, 2nd, 8th and 9th.

Kansas:  3rd.

Kentucky:  3rd and 6th.

Louisiana:  3rd

Maine:  1st and 2nd.

Maryland:  1st, 2nd, and 3rd

Massachusetts:  2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 10th

Michigan:  1st (Hi Bart!), 6th (GOP needs to hold), 7th, 9th, 11th (GOP needs to hold).

Minnesota:  1st, 3rd (GOP needs to hold), 7th.

Mississippi:  1st, 4th

Missouri:  3rd, 4th

Nevada: 3rd

New Hampshire: 1st and 2nd

New Jersey: 2nd (GOP hold), 3rd, and 13th.

New York:  1st, 2nd, 4th, 9th, 13th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 27th, 29th.

North Carolina:  2nd, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th.

North Dakota: At large (Earl Pomeroy is the (D) incumbent)

Ohio:  1st, 6th, 9th (Marcy Kaptur), 10th, 12th (GOP hold), 16th (John Boccieri), and 18th.

Oklahoma: 2nd

Oregon:  4th and 5th

Pennsylvania: 3rd, 4th, 6th (GOP hold), 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 17th.

Rhode Island:  2nd

South Carolina:  5th

South Dakota: At large (Herseth-Sandlin is the (D) incumbent)

Tennessee:  4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th

Texas: 15th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, 29th.

Utah: 2nd

Virginia: 2nd, 5th, 9th, and 11th.

Washington:  2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 8th (GOP hold)

West Virginia:  1st, 3rd

Wisconsin:  1st (GOP hold), 3rd, 7th, and 8th.

Total number of targeted seats:  132 Democratic seats targeted for gain.  10 GOP seats for holding.

2010 Senate race targets:

Ted Kaufman (DE)  Mike Castle leads strongly to take this seat over.

Roland Burris (IL) Mark Kirk has been polling well against the corrupt G man.

Evan Bayh (IN)  Whether it be Coats or Stutzman as the GOP nominee, Brad Ellsworth dug his grave with his yea vote for Obamacare.

Byron Dorgan (ND)  John VanHoeven will take this seat over for the GOP.

Blanche Lincoln (AR)  She is looking at getting just killed in her re-elect.  Been doing some major damage control.

Barbara Boxer (CA) I don’t care, just kick her out

Michael Bennett (CO) Jane Norton or Ken Buck would do fine

Harry Reid (NV) Heh

Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)  Please George Pataki, run

Arlen Specter (PA) Pat Toomey wins in a walk

Patty Murray (WA) Please Dino Rossi, run

Russ Finegold (WI) Please Tommy Thompson, run

GOP Seats need to hold:  Voinovich and Bonds seat’s are really the ones that I see being the most vulnerable.

Total number of Senate Democratic targets:  12

2012 Democratic and GOP incumbents:

Nelsons of Florida and Nebraska, Webb of Virginia, Casey of Pennsylvania, Brown of Ohio, Stabenow of Michigan (Michigan is trending red very hard), Tester of Montana, Menendez of New Jersey, Bingaman of New Mexico, Conrad of North Dakota, Kohl of Wisconsin, Byrd of West Virginia, and McCaskill of Missouri all look quite vulnerable.  There are 13 vulnerable seats here.  Also, keep in mind of a potential retirement from Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey.

GOP incumbents:

Barring any retirements, these seats look safe for the GOP.

2010 Donation priority:  First to your local GOP candidate whomever it may be after the primary dust clears –> 2nd to GOP conservative candidates in your state –> 3rd to the NRCC and  NRSC which comprise of the Senate and Congressional committes or the GOP itself.

Finally, remember that with what happened with the “pro-life” Democrats, it was revealed with Bart Stupak that in the end, a Democrat is a Democrat and will tow the party line.  It’s just all a big show, shell game, whatever you want to call it.  They will always vote through legislation and allow Democrats in red states/districts to vote to give the appearance that they are representing their constituents.  There is no such thing as a moderate, Blue Dog Democrat anymore.  It doesn’t matter if they try to be more conservative than the GOP candidate.  When it counts, they will vote the party line and the Democratic party today is really the Socialist-Marxist party that functions under the  word “Democrat”.  Voting records don’t matter any more with Democrats who vote to keep in line with red state values.  A Democrat is always a Democrat and will always vote as a Democrat to incrementally take away your freedom.

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