Stu Rothenberg now projecting GOP to take over the House


I think this estimate is very conservative when I look at Rothenberg’s list of seats in play.  Stu Rothenberg is trying to on the best face for the Democrats but it looks like it is really going to be a lot worse for the Democrats this election cycle and Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics agrees.  The comments in parentheses are my humble opinion ;)  The GOP has a golden campaign platform to run with this year:

Any vote for a Democratic congressman is a vote to keep Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.  Repeal Obamacare.  There is no such thing as a fiscal conservative or pro-life Democrat.  See Bart Stupak or Brad Ellsworth for example.

If any GOP candidate runs with this campaign and advertising platform, their Democratic opponents won’t stand a chance in light blue, purple or red districts in November.

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 13 D)
  • AR 1 (Open; Berry, D) (GOP Gain, GOP leaning district)
  • FL 24 (Kosmas, D) * (GOP Gain, GOP leaning district)
  • IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R) (Should stay GOP though shouldn’t be taken for granted)
  • IL 14 (Foster, D) * (Agree with this assessment though the GOP has a great chance take this seat with Brady and Kirk creating a downticket wave.  Lean GOP. )
  • MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D) (No brainer, GOP gain)
  • MI 7 (Schauer, D) (GOP gain, Schauer killed himself with the Obamacare vote)
  • NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D) (GOP gain, an Obamacare casualty)
  • NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D) (Should stay GOP)
  • NY 24 (Arcuri, D) * (This one is interesting.  The unions are not at all happy with Arcuri and his vote against Obamacare.  At last check the unions were fielding a candidate to primary Arcuri.  The demographics and weight favor the GOP (+2).  I would put this one as lean GOP.)
  • NV 3 (Titus, D) * (Titus is toast.  An Obamacare casualty and with Harry Reid being up for re-election, this creates a negative downticket affect for Titus.  Should be a GOP gain.)
  • PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)  (I agree.  Toss-up to maybe a smidge lean to the GOP.  Will get more info later.)
  • PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) * (Burns is a great candidate to take over this seat held by the late Jack Murtha.  The Democrats however have fielded a reasonable opponent to hold this seat.  Toss-up but with indies being so heavily against the Dems this election cycle this could sway the victory to Burns)
  • TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D) (No brainer, GOP gain.  The mask was ripped off the Dems with Stupak’s Judas moment.  Any Democrat incumbent in a red state is going to have big time problems getting re-elected.)
  • WA 3 (Open; Baird, D) (Agree toss-up)
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)
  • AL 2 (Bright, D) (GOP gain, Bright will be an indirect casualty of Stupak’s folly.)
  • AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D) * (GOP gain)
  • FL 8 (Grayson, D) (GOP gain.  Grayson is in huge trouble.)
  • ID 1 (Minnick, D) (GOP gain.  It is doubtful that the Tea Party Express’s stupid endorsement of Minnick will help him any.  A vote for a Democratic congressmen is a vote to keep Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.)
  • IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D) * (Heh.  GOP gain)
  • KS 3 (Open; Moore, D) (GOP gain)
  • MS 1 (Childers, D) (Another indirect Stupak casualty.  GOP gain)
  • VA 2 (Nye, D) * (GOP gain.  Virginia became burnt red with the Obamacare vote.)
  • VA 5 (Perriello, D) (See above.)
Lean Republican (3 R, 7 D)
  • CA 3 (Lungren, R) (Agree)
  • CO 4 (Markey, D) * (GOP +9 district.  Markey votes for Cap and Trade and Obamacare equals a GOP gain.)
  • FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R) (GOP hold)
  • LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D) (GOP gain)
  • MD 1 (Kratovil, D) * (GOP gain. Kratovil is in big time trouble in this seat.  R+13 district)
  • NM 2 (Teague, D) * (GOP gain.  Steve Pearce is running again against Teague.)
  • NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) * (GOP gain)
  • OH 1 (Driehaus, D) * (GOP gain. Stupak sell out)
  • OH 15 (Kilroy, D) * (GOP gain.  Stupak sell out. D+1 district won’t help as indies will push Kilroy aside.)
  • WA 8 (Reichert, R) (GOP hold)
Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)
  • CA 45 (Bono Mack, R) (These seats should all hold for the GOP)
  • NE 2 (Terry, R)
  • OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
  • PA 6 (Gerlach, R) *
  • PA 15 (Dent, R)
  • TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) * (GOP gain.)
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 4 D)
  • HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) * (I have this as lean GOP as Djou has been running a great campaign and has all the momentum.)
  • ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) * (Rothenberg must be smoking some big doobies by making this tilt Democratic.  GOP gain.)
  • SC 5 (Spratt, D) * (R+8 district?  Huh?  And Spratt voted for Obamacare.  GOP gain.)
  • WV 1 (Mollohan, D) * (GOP gain.  Mollohan voting for Obamacare along with being among the Stupak folly coalition isn’t going to help.)
Lean Democratic (1 R, 15 D)
  • AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) * (GOP gain.  R+5 district.)
  • AZ 8 (Giffords, D) * (GOP gain.  R+4 district.)
  • DE -AL (Open; Castle, R) * (Toss-up.  Don’t know how this one is going to go.)
  • IN 9 (Hill, D) (Sure Stu.  GOP Gain R+6 district)
  • IA 3 (Boswell, D) * (Toss-up.  D+1 district but indies are going to play big here.  Depends on the candidate the GOP has coming out of the primaries.)
  • MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D) * (Toss-up Lean Dem though indies (they are going to be a nightmare for you Democratic candidates) could sway this one GOP.  The Scott Brown effect.  D+5 district)
  • MO 4 (Skelton, D) (Skelton has always been strong here.  However, an R+14 district combined with Nancy Pelosi as speaker, Bart Stupak and Brad Ellsworth the real nature of Democrats should equal a GOP gain.)
  • NJ 3 (Adler, D) * (An R+1 district.  Chris Christie campaigning for the GOP candidate could play big here.  Lean GOP.)
  • NY 1 (Bishop, D) (Toss-up to lean GOP.  No partisan weight advantage here but indies will be huge again.)
  • NY 19 (Hall, D) (R+3 district and Hall voted for Obamacare I believe.  Have to do some more research if he voted for cap and trade. GOP gain)
  • OH 16 (Boccieri, D) * (TOAST.  GOP gain.  R+4 district.)
  • OH 18 (Space, D) * (Toast.  Voted against Obamacare to save his tail but voted for Cap and Trade.  R+7 district.  GOP gain.)
  • PA 4 (Altmire, D) * (GOP gain.  Altmire ticked off the unions with his NO vote.  However, Stupak and Pelosi tilt this R+6 seat back into GOP hands as people now know what Democrats really stand for.)
  • PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) * (Toss to lean GOP.  Sorry Stu.  Even with a D+4 advantage the indies will play big here.)
  • VA 9 (Boucher, D) * (GOP gain.  Virginia burning.  Boucher won’t be able to save his skin by playing the conservative actor.)
  • WI 7 (Obey, D) * (This would be a coup.  It is a D+3 district but indies and a fired up GOP base spell big trouble for Obey.  His Obamacare and Cap and Trade votes will not help him. Toss-up.)
Democrat Favored (1 R, 19 D)
  • CA 11 (McNerney, D) (Toss-up.  R+1 district.)
  • CO 3 (Salazar, D) (GOP gain.  R+5 district.)
  • CT 5 (Murphy, D) (Toss-up.  D+2 district but indies will play big here.)
  • FL 22 (Klein, D) * (D+1 district.  Could go GOP with indies, Obamacare yea vote hanging and a fired up GOP base. Toss-up)
  • IL 11 (Halvorson, D) * (GOP gain.  Halvorson is in big trouble here.
  • IN 2 (Donnelly, D) * (A Stupak sell out.  GOP gain and he voted for Obamacare.)
  • LA 2 (Cao, R) (Dem Gain.  Too strong of a Dem district for Cao to overcome but indies might help.)
  • NM 1 (Heinrich, D) * (Lean Dem hold though this is a D+5 district.  Indies could play a big role here again.)
  • NY 13 (McMahon, D) (Unions are really ticked at McMahon for his no vote.  Lean GOP.)
  • NY 20 (Murphy, D) (R+2 district.  Toss-up.)
  • NY 23 (Owens, D) # (Said he would vote against Obamacare and then voted for it.  GOP gain.)
  • NC 8 (Kissell, D) (Likely a Dem hold though if the GOP candidate runs voting for Kissell will be a vote to keep Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, it could go GOP. Toss-up.)
  • OH 13 (Sutton, D) * (Toss-up.  D+5 district but indies will play a big role here.)
  • PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D) * (Toast.  GOP gain.  Part of the Stupak sell out coalition.)
  • PA 8 (Murphy, D) * (Could go GOP.  Toss-up.  D+2 district but indies and the fired up GOP base will make it very difficult for Murphy.)
  • PA 10 (Carney, D) * (Toast.  GOP gain.  Abortion sell-out and Obamacare yea vote in a R+8 district.)
  • PA 17 (Holden, D) (Toast.  GOP gain.  R+6 district and Holden hung the Obamacare millstone around his neck.
  • SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D) (Toast.  GOP gain.  Latest polling has her statistically even with potential GOP challengers.)
  • TX 17 (Edwards, D) (GOP gain.  Flores is a very strong, well funded opponent and with a R+20 district spells the end of Chet Edwards.)
  • WI 8 (Kagen, D) (Lean GOP.  In a R+2 district and with Kagen voting for Obamacare this will not play well here.)

Total seats in play: 79
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68

Dropped from the list:
MN 3 (Paulsen, R) *, MN 6 (Bachmann, R) *, OH 2 (Schmidt, R) *, CA 44 (Calvert, R) *, CA 47 (Sanchez, D) #, GA 8 (Marshall, D) #

Looking at this list, I have the GOP at +51 including strong leaners with a number of seats in the toss-up section.  Rothenberg only has 79 seats as being in play but I highly disagree here.  Here are the 132 that I had. I have crossed out the ones that Rothenberg and I agree are in play so you can see the remaining seats that Rothenberg neglects to mention.

Alabama: 2nd

Alaska:  At large (GOP hold, Young might have some problems with some legal trouble)

Arizona:  1st, 5th, and 8th.  The 7th is a secondary target.  D+6 district.

Arkansas:  1st, 2nd, and 4th.

California:  11th, 18th, 20th, and 47th.  I remind you that Costa and Cardoza (in 18 and 20) had their votes bought by Obama letting the water being turned on so farmers could water their crops in those districts.

Colorado:  3rd, 4th, and 7th.

Connecticut:  2nd, 4th, and 5th

Delaware:  At Large (Republican Mike Castle has vacated his seat and is running for Biden’s senate seat)

Florida:  2nd, 8th, 22nd, and 24th (It is amazing that Rotheberg left out Boyd’s seat as Boyd voted for Obamacare and Boyd is in a R+6 district)

Georgia:  2nd, 8th and 12th

Hawaii:  1st

Idaho:  1st

Illinois:  8th, 10th (incumbent GOP member is in a D+6 district), 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th.  Illinois is interesting.  A lot of fluidity in those districts.

Indiana:  1st, 2nd, 8th and 9th.

Kansas:  3rd.

Kentucky:  3rd and 6th.

Louisiana:  3rd

Maine:  1st and 2nd.

Maryland:  1st, 2nd, and 3rd

Massachusetts:  2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 10th

Michigan:  1st (Hi Bart!), 6th (GOP needs to hold), 7th, 9th, 11th (GOP needs to hold).

Minnesota:  1st, 3rd (GOP needs to hold), 7th.

Mississippi:  1st, 4th

Missouri:  3rd, 4th

Nevada: 3rd

New Hampshire: 1st and 2nd

New Jersey: 2nd (GOP hold), 3rd, and 13th.

New York:  1st, 2nd, 4th, 9th, 13th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 27th, 29th.

North Carolina:  2nd, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th.

North Dakota: At large (Earl Pomeroy is the (D) incumbent)

Ohio:  1st, 6th, 9th (Marcy Kaptur), 10th, 12th (GOP hold), 16th (John Boccieri), and 18th.

Oklahoma: 2nd

Oregon:  4th and 5th

Pennsylvania: 3rd, 4th, 6th (GOP hold), 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 17th.

Rhode Island:  2nd

South Carolina:  5th

South Dakota: At large (Herseth-Sandlin is the (D) incumbent)

Tennessee:  4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th

Texas: 15th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, 29th.

Utah: 2nd

Virginia: 2nd, 5th, 9th, and 11th.

Washington:  2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 8th (GOP hold)

West Virginia:  1st, 3rd

Wisconsin:  1st (GOP hold), 3rd, 7th, and 8th.

Not in my list was Iowa’s 3rd district, Texas-17 (Chet Edwards), Florida-25, New Mexico-1 & 2, Ohio-5 & 15.

Updating and summarizing, there are 139 targets when I take my list and update it with Rothenberg’s list.  Currently, I have a 51 seat GOP gain in the House with 88 seats still to be decided.  25% win rate of those undecided seats puts it at a gain of 73 seats, 50% win ratio puts it at a 95 seat gain, 75% win ratio gains 117 seats which would be enough for the House to override an Obama veto.  These sound like astronomical numbers that at first blush would be unrealistic but with a fired up GOP base, independents in favor of the GOP by over 2 to 1 and some very angry seniors makes these huge gains quite possible.  When the primary dust clears, expect a very large post with links to all these races and the GOP candidates.

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