Cooked push polls and the MSM’s desperate attempt to gin up a Democratic comeback
They are desperate to turn out their base. It isn’t to retain the House or the Senate. It is to prevent an epic blowout that is shaping up for November.
Barbara Boxer pulling ahead of Fiorina in California? Seeing Rand Paul ahead by only 2 points ahead of Jack Conway in this poll from SurveyUSA gave cause for alarm…until I began to dig into the poll internals. Some things seemed surprisingly out of whack for SurveyUSA’s polling here and Allahpundit over at Hot Air breaks it down beautifully.
Unmentioned in the Herald-Journal’s story: The Survey USA poll that showed Paul up by 15 had a D/I/R sample of 47/10/42, which is in line with the 2008 Kentucky presidential exit poll sample of 47/15/38. Like I said up top, it stands to reason that Republican turnout will be better this year than it was two years ago. So what’s the sample in this new poll showing the race now within the margin of error? Why, it’s … 51/12/38. Once again, to believe Paul is ahead by only two, you have to believe that Democrats in Kentucky are going to turn out for Jack Conway in greater proportions than they did for Barack Obama. Ain’t happening, although it probably is true that the race has tightened since the poll that showed Paul up 15. Based on the spread here, figure it’s probably more in the neighborhood of eight points. Not a prohibitive lead, but comfortable.
And here is a breakdown on the race in California:
Why doubt the numbers? Because, as political consultant Mike Murphy pointed out last night on Twitter, the sample is absurd. Including leaners, the breakdown between Democrats, independents, and Republicans was … 55/9/35. (WOW!! That’s not just cooking a poll. That’s broiling it to a crisp.) To put that in perspective for you, the exit poll sample in California from the 2008 presidential election was 42/28/30. For the Boxer/Fiorina numbers to be right, you have to believe that, in this year of the big red wave, somehow California Democrats and left-leaning indies are way more motivated to vote than they were at the height of Hopenchange with Obama at the top of the ticket. Anyone seriously believe that?
The GOP, seniors, indies and even some fiscal conservative Democrats who will vote GOP this cycle are going to show up in droves. As was shown not too long back, the Dems only chance to at least keep the losses to a reasonable 40-50 seat loss in the House and 6 in the Senate is by having their voters show up.
One closing point that this “Democratic comeback” tactic fails to ignore. It will likely cause any of those voters who were going to sit out thinking “Heck, I was going to vote GOP so what is the use of me voting?” from being complacent. We are seeing the MSM and the Democrats throw every dirty trick and the kitchen sink at the public and the GOP to save this sinking ship. Just remember to take everything that comes from the MSM with a HUGE grain of salt.